World predictions & odds

·
US strikes Iran by...?

World

Politics

US strikes Iran by...?

46%

June 30

$167m Vol.

$8m today

$1m Liq.

2

Ends in 5 months

US next strikes Iran on...?

World

Politics

US next strikes Iran on...?

77%

No strike by February 28

$5m Vol.

$1m today

$632k Liq.

Ends in 24 days

Next Country US Strikes

World

Politics

Next Country US Strikes

100%

Somalia

$2m Vol.

$778k today

$419k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Next leader out of power before 2027?

World

Politics

Next leader out of power before 2027?

91%

Schoof - Netherlands PM

$5m Vol.

$333k today

$306k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Thailand Legislative Election Winner

World

Politics

Thailand Legislative Election Winner

67%

People’s Party (PPLE)

$4m Vol.

$330k today

$210k Liq.

125

Ends in 4 days

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

World

Politics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

12%

$13m Vol.

$320k today

$759k Liq.

20,361

Ends in about 2 months

Portugal Presidential Election

World

Politics

Portugal Presidential Election

99%

António José Seguro (IND)

$129m Vol.

$316k today

$12m Liq.

1,619

Ends in 4 days

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

World

Politics

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

64%

December 31

$10m Vol.

$290k today

$137k Liq.

318

Ends in 11 days

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

World

Politics

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

15%

$9m Vol.

$288k today

$396k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

World

Politics

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

87%

$623k Vol.

$253k today

$37.4k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Next French Presidential Election

World

Politics

Next French Presidential Election

28%

Jordan Bardella

$5m Vol.

$220k today

$1m Liq.

233

Ends in about 1 year

Brazil Presidential Election

World

Global Elections

Brazil Presidential Election

53%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$15m Vol.

$183k today

$753k Liq.

1,966

Ends in 8 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

World

Politics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

4%

$2m Vol.

$158k today

$463k Liq.

Ends in 24 days

Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?

World

Politics

Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?

98%

VVD + CDA + D66

$32m Vol.

$156k today

$1m Liq.

323

Ends in 9 months

Prime Minister of Japan after snap election?

World

Politics

Prime Minister of Japan after snap election?

99%

Sanae Takaichi

$1m Vol.

$148k today

$292k Liq.

15

Ends in 4 days

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

World

Politics

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

10%

$4m Vol.

$144k today

$205k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

World

Politics

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

59%

February 5

$461k Vol.

$137k today

$23.4k Liq.

Ends in 24 days

Next Prime Minister of Hungary

World

Elections

Next Prime Minister of Hungary

54%

Péter Magyar

$6m Vol.

$135k today

$392k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

World

Politics

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

13%

Donald Trump

$4m Vol.

$110k today

$1m Liq.

115

Ends in 8 months

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

World

Politics

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

37%

February 4

$397k Vol.

$103k today

$30.7k Liq.

Ends in 24 days