Foreign Policy predictions & odds

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

Foreign Policy

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

$23m Vol.

$353k today

$233k Liq.

Ends in 3 days

<1%

$23m Vol.

$353k today

$233k Liq.

Ends in 3 days

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Foreign Policy

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

$26m Vol.

$236k today

$914k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

12%

$26m Vol.

$236k today

$914k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Foreign Policy

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

$12m Vol.

$143k today

$376k Liq.

20,361

Ends in 2 months

15%

$12m Vol.

$143k today

$376k Liq.

20,361

Ends in 2 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

Foreign Policy

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

$579k Vol.

$105k today

$239k Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

9%

$579k Vol.

$105k today

$239k Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Foreign Policy

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

$301k Vol.

$64.2k today

$52.6k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

27%

$301k Vol.

$64.2k today

$52.6k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Foreign Policy

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

$8m Vol.

$50.8k today

$421k Liq.

71

Ends in 11 months

13%

$8m Vol.

$50.8k today

$421k Liq.

71

Ends in 11 months

US strike on Mexico by...?

Foreign Policy

US strike on Mexico by...?

$2m Vol.

$52.1k Liq.

116

Ends in 11 months

23%

December 31

$2m Vol.

$52.1k Liq.

116

Ends in 11 months

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

Foreign Policy

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

$199k Vol.

$14.1k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

16%

$199k Vol.

$14.1k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Foreign Policy

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

$8m Vol.

$309k Liq.

5,422

Ends in 11 months

44%

$8m Vol.

$309k Liq.

5,422

Ends in 11 months

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

Foreign Policy

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

$557k Vol.

$106k Liq.

114

Ends in 2 months

29%

Russia

$557k Vol.

$106k Liq.

114

Ends in 2 months

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

$296k Vol.

$49.4k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

29%

December 31

$296k Vol.

$49.4k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Foreign Policy

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

$2m Vol.

$59.4k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

2%

$2m Vol.

$59.4k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Will Trump meet with Putin again by...?

Foreign Policy

Will Trump meet with Putin again by...?

$7m Vol.

$11.0k Liq.

251

Ends in 2 months

18%

March 31, 2026

$7m Vol.

$11.0k Liq.

251

Ends in 2 months

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Foreign Policy

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

$614k Vol.

$71.0k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

18%

$614k Vol.

$71.0k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Foreign Policy

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

$82.8k Vol.

$25.0k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

6%

$82.8k Vol.

$25.0k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Foreign Policy

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

$1m Vol.

$6.0k Liq.

145

22%

March 31, 2026

$1m Vol.

$6.0k Liq.

145

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

Foreign Policy

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

$2m Vol.

$9.0k Liq.

117

8%

June 30, 2026

$2m Vol.

$9.0k Liq.

117

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

Foreign Policy

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

$166k Vol.

$39.7k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

22%

7

$166k Vol.

$39.7k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

Ukraine election called by...?

Foreign Policy

Ukraine election called by...?

$1m Vol.

$16.4k Liq.

12

19%

June 30, 2026

$1m Vol.

$16.4k Liq.

12

Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31?

Foreign Policy

Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31?

$119k Vol.

$5.6k Liq.

7

Ends in 2 months

14%

$119k Vol.

$5.6k Liq.

7

Ends in 2 months

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