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All Trump Epstein Venezuela Midterms Primaries Minnesota Unrest US Election Trade War Congress Global Elections NYC Mayor Ukraine Mayoral Elections Courts Gaza Israel Cabinet Senate

Politics

All Trump Epstein Venezuela Midterms Primaries Minnesota Unrest US Election Trade War Congress Global Elections NYC Mayor Ukraine Mayoral Elections Courts Gaza Israel Cabinet Senate

Fed decision in January? card icon

Fed decision in January?

50+ bps decrease

<1%

25 bps decrease

<1%

50+ bps decrease

<1%

25 bps decrease

<1%

$588m Vol.

Monthly

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 card icon

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom

35%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

9%

Gavin Newsom

35%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

9%

$548m Vol.

US strikes Iran by...? card icon

US strikes Iran by...?

January 27

1%

January 28

3%

January 27

1%

January 28

3%

$109m Vol.

Monthly

US government shutdown Saturday? card icon

US government shutdown Saturday?

78%

chance

$12m Vol.

Daily

Presidential Election Winner 2028 card icon

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance

27%

Gavin Newsom

20%

JD Vance

27%

Gavin Newsom

20%

$220m Vol.

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? card icon

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Rick Rieder

47%

Kevin Warsh

29%

Rick Rieder

47%

Kevin Warsh

29%

$272m Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 card icon

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance

51%

Marco Rubio

16%

J.D. Vance

51%

Marco Rubio

16%

$213m Vol.

Next Country US Strikes card icon

Next Country US Strikes

Somalia

100%

Iran

<1%

Somalia

100%

Iran

<1%

NEW

•

$3m Vol.

Monthly

US next strikes Iran on...? card icon

US next strikes Iran on...?

January 25

<1%

January 26

<1%

January 25

<1%

January 26

<1%

$22m Vol.

Monthly

Elon Musk # tweets January 23 - January 30, 2026? card icon

Elon Musk # tweets January 23 - January 30, 2026?

200-219

<1%

220-239

<1%

200-219

<1%

220-239

<1%

$9m Vol.

Weekly

Thailand Legislative Election Winner card icon

Thailand Legislative Election Winner

People’s Party (PPLE)

61%

Bhumjaithai Party (BJT)

36%

People’s Party (PPLE)

61%

Bhumjaithai Party (BJT)

36%

$3m Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Dutch government? card icon

Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?

VVD + CDA + D66

98%

VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66

1%

VVD + CDA + D66

98%

VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66

1%

$29m Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets January 26 - January 28, 2026? card icon

Elon Musk # tweets January 26 - January 28, 2026?

<40

<1%

40-64

18%

<40

<1%

40-64

18%

NEW

•

$1m Vol.

Daily

Elon Musk # tweets January 27 - February 3, 2026? card icon

Elon Musk # tweets January 27 - February 3, 2026?

<20

<1%

20-39

<1%

<20

<1%

20-39

<1%

NEW

•

$3m Vol.

Weekly

Venezuela leader end of 2026? card icon

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Delcy Rodríguez

57%

María Corina Machado

17%

Delcy Rodríguez

57%

María Corina Machado

17%

$13m Vol.

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? card icon

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

8%

chance

$15m Vol.

Monthly

Portugal Presidential Election card icon

Portugal Presidential Election

António José Seguro (IND)

98%

André Ventura (CH)

3%

António José Seguro (IND)

98%

André Ventura (CH)

3%

$125m Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? card icon

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

<1%

chance

$23m Vol.

How long will the Government Shutdown last? card icon

How long will the Government Shutdown last?

1+ day

79%

3+ days

75%

1+ day

79%

3+ days

75%

NEW

•

$665k Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets January 30 - February 6, 2026? card icon

Elon Musk # tweets January 30 - February 6, 2026?

<20

<1%

20-39

<1%

<20

<1%

20-39

<1%

NEW

•

$455k Vol.

Weekly

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