US strikes Iran by...?
$108,985,863 Vol.
January 27
$1,945,145 Vol.
1%
January 27
$1,945,145 Vol.
1%
January 28
$295,338 Vol.
3%
January 28
$295,338 Vol.
3%
January 29
$205,081 Vol.
4%
January 29
$205,081 Vol.
4%
January 30
$148,152 Vol.
7%
January 30
$148,152 Vol.
7%
January 31
$25,339,030 Vol.
10%
January 31
$25,339,030 Vol.
10%
February 6
$175,414 Vol.
19%
February 6
$175,414 Vol.
19%
February 13
$134,117 Vol.
32%
February 13
$134,117 Vol.
32%
February 28
$2,774,910 Vol.
44%
February 28
$2,774,910 Vol.
44%
March 31
$3,655,131 Vol.
54%
March 31
$3,655,131 Vol.
54%
June 30
$1,967,334 Vol.
63%
June 30
$1,967,334 Vol.
63%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 26, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Volume
$108,985,863End Date
Jun 30, 2026Created At
Jan 26, 2026, 10:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US strikes Iran by...?
$108,985,863 Vol.
January 27
$1,945,145 Vol.
1%
January 28
$295,338 Vol.
3%
January 29
$205,081 Vol.
4%
January 30
$148,152 Vol.
7%
January 31
$25,339,030 Vol.
10%
February 6
$175,414 Vol.
19%
February 13
$134,117 Vol.
32%
February 28
$2,774,910 Vol.
44%
March 31
$3,655,131 Vol.
54%
June 30
$1,967,334 Vol.
63%
About
Volume
$108,985,863End Date
Jun 30, 2026Created At
Jan 26, 2026, 10:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...
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