Geopolitics predictions & odds

·
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?

Geopolitics

Politics

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?

100%

$17m Vol.

$10m today

$2m Liq.

US strikes Iran by...?

Geopolitics

Politics

US strikes Iran by...?

45%

June 30

$160m Vol.

$6m today

$2m Liq.

2

Ends in 5 months

Who will Trump talk to in January?

Geopolitics

Politics

Who will Trump talk to in January?

<1%

Vladimir Putin

$11m Vol.

$2m today

$580k Liq.

US next strikes Iran on...?

Geopolitics

Politics

US next strikes Iran on...?

77%

No strike by February 28

$5m Vol.

$1m today

$534k Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Geopolitics

Politics

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

68%

Delcy Rodríguez

$15m Vol.

$378k today

$1m Liq.

148

Ends in 11 months

Next Country US Strikes

Geopolitics

Politics

Next Country US Strikes

83%

Somalia

$874k Vol.

$321k today

$141k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Geopolitics

Politics

Next leader out of power before 2027?

87%

Schoof - Netherlands PM

$5m Vol.

$296k today

$267k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Geopolitics

Politics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

12%

$13m Vol.

$265k today

$816k Liq.

20,361

Ends in about 2 months

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Geopolitics

Iran

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

10%

$4m Vol.

$239k today

$1m Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

Geopolitics

Politics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

4%

$2m Vol.

$214k today

$458k Liq.

Ends in 25 days

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

Geopolitics

Politics

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

96%

$402k Vol.

$195k today

$35.2k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Geopolitics

Politics

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

10%

$4m Vol.

$187k today

$220k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

Geopolitics

Politics

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

56%

December 31

$10m Vol.

$184k today

$151k Liq.

308

Ends in 12 days

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

Geopolitics

Politics

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

41%

February 7

$310k Vol.

$161k today

$30.5k Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Geopolitics

Politics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

46%

$8m Vol.

$158k today

$543k Liq.

5,422

Ends in 11 months

Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on...?

Geopolitics

Politics

Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on...?

24%

February 7

$247k Vol.

$153k today

$17.8k Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

Geopolitics

Politics

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

59%

February 5

$351k Vol.

$150k today

$18.2k Liq.

Ends in 25 days

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?

Geopolitics

Politics

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?

33%

$240k Vol.

$137k today

$23.5k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Geopolitics

Politics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

26%

$487k Vol.

$119k today

$118k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Geopolitics

Politics

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

43%

$2m Vol.

$115k today

$90.9k Liq.

8

Ends in 11 months