Geopolitics predictions & odds

·
US strikes Iran by...?

Geopolitics

Politics

US strikes Iran by...?

46%

June 30

$167m Vol.

$8m today

$1m Liq.

2

Ends in 5 months

US next strikes Iran on...?

Geopolitics

Politics

US next strikes Iran on...?

77%

No strike by February 28

$5m Vol.

$1m today

$628k Liq.

Ends in 24 days

Next Country US Strikes

Geopolitics

Politics

Next Country US Strikes

100%

Somalia

$2m Vol.

$778k today

$419k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Geopolitics

Iran

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

7%

$5m Vol.

$574k today

$731k Liq.

Ends in 24 days

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Geopolitics

Politics

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

67%

Delcy Rodríguez

$15m Vol.

$400k today

$1m Liq.

148

Ends in 11 months

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Geopolitics

Politics

Next leader out of power before 2027?

91%

Schoof - Netherlands PM

$5m Vol.

$333k today

$302k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Geopolitics

Politics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

12%

$13m Vol.

$320k today

$759k Liq.

20,361

Ends in about 2 months

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

Geopolitics

Politics

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

64%

December 31

$10m Vol.

$290k today

$139k Liq.

318

Ends in 11 days

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Geopolitics

Politics

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

15%

$9m Vol.

$288k today

$397k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

Geopolitics

Politics

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

87%

$623k Vol.

$253k today

$37.9k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

Geopolitics

Politics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

4%

$2m Vol.

$158k today

$464k Liq.

Ends in 24 days

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Geopolitics

Politics

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

10%

$4m Vol.

$144k today

$205k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

Geopolitics

Politics

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

59%

February 5

$461k Vol.

$137k today

$23.5k Liq.

Ends in 24 days

Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Geopolitics

Politics

Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

19%

$474k Vol.

$130k today

$60.2k Liq.

Ends in 24 days

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Geopolitics

Politics

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

13%

Donald Trump

$4m Vol.

$110k today

$1m Liq.

115

Ends in 8 months

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

Geopolitics

Politics

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

37%

February 4

$397k Vol.

$103k today

$31.3k Liq.

Ends in 24 days

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?

Geopolitics

Politics

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?

15%

$330k Vol.

$99.2k today

$30.8k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?

Geopolitics

Politics

Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?

86%

$101k Vol.

$96.0k today

$14.0k Liq.

10

Ends in 24 days

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Geopolitics

Politics

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

13%

$8m Vol.

$94.7k today

$516k Liq.

71

Ends in 11 months

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Geopolitics

Politics

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

25%

$4m Vol.

$66.1k today

$107k Liq.

8

Ends in 5 months