US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28 48%
January 2026 10%
February 1 5.7%
February 7 4.0%
$308,011 Vol.
$308,011 Vol.
January 2026
$18,162 Vol.
10%
January 2026
$18,162 Vol.
10%
February 1
$16,403 Vol.
6%
February 1
$16,403 Vol.
6%
February 2
$10,761 Vol.
3%
February 2
$10,761 Vol.
3%
February 3
$10,120 Vol.
2%
February 3
$10,120 Vol.
2%
February 4
$11,132 Vol.
3%
February 4
$11,132 Vol.
3%
February 5
$9,469 Vol.
2%
February 5
$9,469 Vol.
2%
February 6
$8,459 Vol.
3%
February 6
$8,459 Vol.
3%
February 7
$10,334 Vol.
4%
February 7
$10,334 Vol.
4%
February 8
$10,197 Vol.
1%
February 8
$10,197 Vol.
1%
February 9
$8,263 Vol.
1%
February 9
$8,263 Vol.
1%
February 10
$9,484 Vol.
1%
February 10
$9,484 Vol.
1%
February 11
$7,775 Vol.
1%
February 11
$7,775 Vol.
1%
February 12
$12,193 Vol.
1%
February 12
$12,193 Vol.
1%
February 13
$10,246 Vol.
2%
February 13
$10,246 Vol.
2%
February 14
$8,522 Vol.
2%
February 14
$8,522 Vol.
2%
February 15
$8,152 Vol.
1%
February 15
$8,152 Vol.
1%
February 16
$7,417 Vol.
1%
February 16
$7,417 Vol.
1%
February 17
$8,564 Vol.
1%
February 17
$8,564 Vol.
1%
February 18
$8,062 Vol.
1%
February 18
$8,062 Vol.
1%
February 19
$7,849 Vol.
1%
February 19
$7,849 Vol.
1%
February 20
$9,103 Vol.
2%
February 20
$9,103 Vol.
2%
February 21
$8,515 Vol.
2%
February 21
$8,515 Vol.
2%
February 22
$8,859 Vol.
1%
February 22
$8,859 Vol.
1%
February 23
$7,486 Vol.
1%
February 23
$7,486 Vol.
1%
February 24
$8,483 Vol.
1%
February 24
$8,483 Vol.
1%
February 25
$16,059 Vol.
1%
February 25
$16,059 Vol.
1%
February 26
$11,016 Vol.
1%
February 26
$11,016 Vol.
1%
February 27
$12,650 Vol.
2%
February 27
$12,650 Vol.
2%
February 28
$9,651 Vol.
2%
February 28
$9,651 Vol.
2%
No strike by February 28
$14,623 Vol.
48%
No strike by February 28
$14,623 Vol.
48%
Rules
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 27, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28 48%
January 2026 10%
February 1 5.7%
February 7 4.0%
$308,011 Vol.
$308,011 Vol.
January 2026
10%
February 1
6%
February 2
3%
February 3
2%
February 4
3%
February 5
2%
February 6
3%
February 7
4%
February 8
1%
February 9
1%
February 10
1%
February 11
1%
February 12
1%
February 13
2%
February 14
2%
February 15
1%
February 16
1%
February 17
1%
February 18
1%
February 19
1%
February 20
2%
February 21
2%
February 22
1%
February 23
1%
February 24
1%
February 25
1%
February 26
1%
February 27
2%
February 28
2%
No strike by February 28
48%
About
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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