Geopolitics

US next strikes Iran on...?

January 25

<1%

January 26

<1%

January 25

<1%

January 26

<1%

$23m Vol.

Monthly

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

chance

$15m Vol.

Monthly

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

January 31

11%

February 15

35%

January 31

11%

February 15

35%

$7m Vol.

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

January 28

43%

January 29

57%

January 28

43%

January 29

57%

$5m Vol.

Daily

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

January 25

<1%

January 26

January 25

<1%

January 26

$3m Vol.

Daily

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

25%

chance

$8m Vol.

Daily

Iran Strike on Israel by...?

January 31

February 28

38%

January 31

February 28

38%

$820k Vol.

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

United States

Italy

16%

United States

Italy

16%

$463k Vol.

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

Russia

27%

Ukraine

18%

Russia

27%

Ukraine

18%

NEW

•

$555k Vol.

Will USD reach 1.5M Iranian rials by January 31?

99%

chance

$88k Vol.

Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31?

<1%

chance

$5m Vol.

Monthly

Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?

<1%

chance

$130k Vol.

Monthly

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

January 31

March 31, 2026

49%

January 31

March 31, 2026

49%

$2m Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

16%

chance

$3m Vol.

Monthly

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

36%

chance

$4m Vol.

Daily

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

48%

chance

$2m Vol.

Monthly

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

36%

chance

$3m Vol.

Monthly

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

January 31

March 31

17%

January 31

March 31

17%

$293k Vol.

Weekly

Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

40%

chance

$69k Vol.

Monthly

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

March 31

20%

June 30

28%

March 31

20%

June 30

28%

$4m Vol.

Israel Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

Geopolitics

Geopolitics