Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition

Name: Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition
Start: 2026-01-19T20:35:38.387625Z
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00Z

94% chance

$15,729 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:

- Iran strike on US military
- Iran Strike on Israel
- Iran strike on Qatar

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date, this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEHIranStrike.pdf

Created At: Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET

Volume

$15,729

End Date

Jan 31, 2026

Created At

Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...