US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by January 31 88%
January 31 6.5%
January 30 4.8%
January 29 1.6%
$24,859,450 Vol.
$24,859,450 Vol.
January 27
$1,493,515 Vol.
<1%
January 27
$1,493,515 Vol.
<1%
January 28
$1,200,284 Vol.
<1%
January 28
$1,200,284 Vol.
<1%
January 29
$1,333,339 Vol.
2%
January 29
$1,333,339 Vol.
2%
January 30
$1,205,183 Vol.
5%
January 30
$1,205,183 Vol.
5%
January 31
$1,511,301 Vol.
6%
January 31
$1,511,301 Vol.
6%
No strike by January 31
$2,127,837 Vol.
88%
No strike by January 31
$2,127,837 Vol.
88%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and January 31, 2026, (ET).
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by January 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and January 31, 2026, (ET).
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by January 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by January 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 12, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$24,859,450End Date
Jan 31, 2026Created At
Jan 12, 2026, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by January 31 88%
January 31 6.5%
January 30 4.8%
January 29 1.6%
$24,859,450 Vol.
$24,859,450 Vol.
January 27
$1,493,515 Vol.
<1%
January 28
$1,200,284 Vol.
<1%
January 29
$1,333,339 Vol.
2%
January 30
$1,205,183 Vol.
5%
January 31
$1,511,301 Vol.
6%
No strike by January 31
$2,127,837 Vol.
88%
About
Volume
$24,859,450End Date
Jan 31, 2026Created At
Jan 12, 2026, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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