Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31?

Name: Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31?
Start: 2026-01-07T22:24:52.660251Z
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00Z

Jan 31

Mar 31

3% chance

$91,653 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Lebanese territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Created At: Jan 7, 2026, 5:23 PM ET

Volume

$91,653

End Date

Jan 31, 2026

Created At

Jan 7, 2026, 5:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...