Foreign Policy Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

Geopolitics

Geopolitics

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? card icon

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

12%

chance

$26m Vol.

Monthly
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? card icon

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

13%

chance

$8m Vol.

Monthly
Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31? card icon

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

Russia

27%

Ukraine

18%

Russia

27%

Ukraine

18%

NEW

•

$555k Vol.

US strike on Mexico by...? card icon

US strike on Mexico by...?

January 31

1%

March 31

8%

January 31

1%

March 31

8%

$2m Vol.

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...? card icon

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

January 31

2%

March 31

17%

January 31

2%

March 31

17%

$293k Vol.

Weekly
How many different countries will the US strike in 2026? card icon

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

3

2%

4

5%

3

2%

4

5%

$166k Vol.

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? card icon

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

31%

chance

NEW

Monthly
Ukraine election called by...? card icon

Ukraine election called by...?

March 31, 2026

8%

June 30, 2026

19%

March 31, 2026

8%

June 30, 2026

19%

$1m Vol.