Market icon

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

7 16.9%

8 16.8%

9 11.5%

6 11.1%

$167,830 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$167,830
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Beware of external links.

Market icon

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

7 16.9%

8 16.8%

9 11.5%

6 11.1%

$167,830 Vol.

Market icon

3

$37,209 Vol.

1%

Market icon

4

$2,380 Vol.

6%

Market icon

5

$3,243 Vol.

6%

Market icon

6

$702 Vol.

11%

Market icon

7

$948 Vol.

17%

Market icon

8

$2,090 Vol.

17%

Market icon

9

$2,168 Vol.

12%

Market icon

10

$5,194 Vol.

7%

Market icon

11

$2,630 Vol.

5%

Market icon

12

$2,440 Vol.

4%

Market icon

13

$1,478 Vol.

3%

Market icon

14

$1,199 Vol.

3%

Market icon

15+

$5,169 Vol.

4%

About

Volume
$167,830
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET

Beware of external links.