Name: Ukraine election held by...?
Start: 2025-02-14T00:02:53.059603Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

December 31, 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and June 30, 2026, PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

December 31, 2026

Ukraine election held by...?

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has declared that Russia will not sign a peace agreement with Ukraine until an election occurs, ignoring Ukrainian law that prohibits elections during wartime. Additionally, Lavrov demands that any peace deal prevent future pro-Western governments in Ukraine, while Russia prepares fake elections in occupied Ukrainian territories.

Lavrov Rejects Election

Lavrov now says Russia won’t sign a peace agreement until there’s an election in Ukraine.

Lavrov doesn’t seem to understand that the law dictates that elections cannot be held in times of war.

That’s not an edict by Zelenskyy.

It’s Ukrainian parliament’s decision to vote to

NEW: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov demanded that any future peace agreement in Ukraine include conditions to prevent the election and establishment of future pro-Western governments in Ukraine.

Ukraine and Russia conducted a 390-for-390 prisoner-of-war (POW) and https://t.co/iAxX2lCFiT

NEW I Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov demanded that any future peace agreement in Ukraine include conditions to prevent the election and establishment of future pro-Western governments in Ukraine. 1/5 https://t.co/Q0EhIJfGVT

Ukraine and Russia take part in biggest prisoner swap since 2022 invasion. Putin says the Ukraine leader is not legitimate  as he’s never had a second election in Ukraine. Putins certainly got a brass neck, he’s never faced a real election  in his life. https://t.co/yJ7BFoYak8

Russia is preparing fake “elections” on occupied Ukrainian territories.
In Kherson region, so-called “volunteer centers” are set up inside fake election commissions.
They produce trench candles &amp; nets for the army — and build a base of collaborators to simulate turnout.

Expose https://t.co/BeSA17NXs0

❗Russia FM Sergey Lavrov brings the question of Zelensky’s legitimacy to the fore while discussing who should really sign a peace deal with Russia.

Kremlin considers Zelensky illegitimate as his official term in office expired in May 2024.

Ukraine says election are never held https://t.co/zLph28JDYv

Pope Leo XIV's election to the papacy is celebrated by Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who values the Holy See's firm stance against Russian aggression and support for international law. Discussions around Ukraine's future include potential peace agreements with Russia, debates over NATO and EU involvement, and calls for lifting martial law to hold elections.

Pope Support

Ukraine war could end when prez election is held; not a Ceasefire! Then, new prez/Ukraine, pro-Russian, signs Russia’s peace agreement/Istanbul: No NATO for Ukraine, Russia retains its lands, Ukraine neutralized, No EU peacekeepers, etc…peace agreement signatures=ceasefire

Congratulations to His Holiness Pope Leo XIV @Pontifex on his election to the See of Saint Peter and the beginning of his pontificate.

Ukraine deeply values the Holy See’s consistent position in upholding international law, condemning the Russian Federation’s military aggression

1. Persecuting your perceived Presidential Rival who have high approval rating over you is blatant abuse of power &amp; against the core values of Freedom that USA is helping Ukraine fight to protect &amp; maintain
2. Lift the Martial Law in Ukraine &amp; Conduct Clean &amp; honest election https://t.co/2m0L5gq1YW

Donald Trump has proposed a three-stage plan for Ukraine, involving a ceasefire, elections, and a final agreement, which critics argue fully aligns with Vladimir Putin's desires. The announcement of Ukraine's presidential election on October 26, 2025, by former President Petro Poroshenko, adds further complexity to the ongoing conflict and political landscape.

Trump Proposes Ukraine Ceasefire

BREAKING: According to my sources: the proposal by #Trump consists of 3 stages: 

1) a ceasefire 
2) ELECTIONS in Ukraine
3) signing of a final agreement.  

This is complete fulfillment of all #Putin desires. 

Especially the election part is a gift by Trump to Putin. Putin

1/ Hypothetical Mid-War 2024 Election Results in Ukraine 🗳️

Who would have won? These polls have the answer. 

And it's not always Zelensky (👀Zaluzhnyi). 

Data in the thread 🧵⤵️ https://t.co/TUCDVA8T2P

Ukraine's presidential election has been scheduled for October 26, 2025, according to former President Petro Poroshenko.

Elections in Ukraine can only take place after martial law is lifted.

Presidential election in Ukraine to be held on Oct 26 - Ex-President Poroshenko https://t.co/dXgFvnJaGL https://t.co/Rkc7x7SEDF

Ukrainian President Zelensky is under intense scrutiny as calls for an immediate election grow louder amid tensions with U.S. leaders like Trump and Vance, highlighted by a heated Oval Office exchange. Critics, including prominent voices, argue Zelensky's cancellation of elections and resistance to peace talks are driven by a desire to maintain power, while polls show significant support for potential rival Zaluzhnyi.

Election Pressure

Time for Ukraine to have a real election!

It is now more urgent than ever that Ukraine hold an immediate election with no censorship: We must know for certain if the will of Ukrainian people is to back Zelensky and his road to ruin. If it is, then so be it

🇺🇦⚔️🇺🇸Zelensky rebuffed Senator Lindsey Graham's call for him to resign after his altercation with Trump.

"Only the people of Ukraine can make that decision," Zelensky said.

It's funny to hear that, given that Zelensky cancelled the election.

ukraine_watch https://t.co/d4mWNuWc97

I bet the people of Ukraine would love to hold an election right about now 😂

TRUMP AND VANCE REPRIMAND ZELENSKY DURING A FIREY EXCHANGE IN THE OVAL OFFICE ON LIVE TV, MAKING CLEAR THE US WILL NOT BE DISRESPECTED FOR ITS EFFORTS TO BRING PEACE TO UKRAINE

Zelenskyy does not want peace. He wants more money and weapons.

Zelenskyy knows when the Ukraine-Russia war is over, he will have to hold an election, and he will no longer be President.

Ukraine Holds an “Election” - Ukraine held an election to determine the true president.  Ukraine’s Parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, passed a resolution this week to secure Zelensky’s position for as long as martial law remains in effect. https://t.co/mwFyjRSdcL

🚨 NEW — Ukraine Presidential Election Poll:

⚪️ Zaluzhnyi 68% (+36)
🟢 Zelenskyy 32%

SOCIS | 2,000 A https://t.co/Hb1nOdk5uf

GOING VIRAL: Donald Trump, JD Vance and Ukraine President Zelenskyy get into a heated discussion during peace talks in the Oval Office. Does anyone really think Trudeau-Carney Liberals are capable of handling negotiations with the U.S.? Canadians need an election now. #cdnpoli https://t.co/NsM1Payroq

Of course, we don't have a crystal ball🔮, but we do know Moscow's dirty tricks. As the dust settles in Ukraine, the Kremlin will likely:
📡 try to control the peace narrative
🧹smear Ukraine's leadership 
🗳target post-war election
#DontBeDeceived, read
https://t.co/R1n41xIxgE https://t.co/sDOhjqfBQx

Discussions are heating up over the absence of presidential elections in Ukraine amidst ongoing conflict, with calls for democratic processes growing louder as some suggest international oversight to ensure fairness. Additionally, economic concerns mount as confidence wanes, evidenced by Ukrainians withdrawing funds amid peace talks and political uncertainty.

Debate Intensifies

The fact that we are not demanding a election in Ukraine is something Russians are watching closely. 

We could easily ask the Organization of Security Cooperation in Europe to help with that. 

The fact that we are not doing these things sends the wrong message to the Russians.

Should Zelenskyy hold an election in the Ukraine?

"Ukraine’s nonviolent Orange Revolution of 2004 helped to bring the democratically elected Viktor Yushchenko to power after widespread election fraud had resulted in the victory of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych."

This is from Norm Eisen's "Democracy Playbook" which is based

Ukraine is battling on many fronts. A big battle is to hold the economy together. Losses in official FX reserves have mounted since the US election. That's domestic confidence falling and Ukrainians taking their money out. A sign Ukrainians don't like all the "peace" talk... https://t.co/zrUSFHRCsM

BREAKING: Former Ukraine President Poroshenko is suddenly noticing things, awake from a 6 year coma-like state after 2019 presidential election. https://t.co/pK3EIofo9B

I think I see a solution here. Have Putin agree to a total cessation of all hostilities long enough for a general election to be held in Ukraine, say 3 months. https://t.co/isq9quL1ua

The Trump administration should cut off all aid to Ukraine until the most corrupt dictator in Europe schedules a democratic election to restore freedom and democracy to Ukraine. https://t.co/diUNawGAvi https://t.co/COVeNmWSU8

#Putin's demands: -Ukraine drop its Nato ambitions
-Russia keeps control of all Ukrainian territory seized
-the size of the Ukrainian army be limited.
-western sanctions eased
-a presidential election in Ukraine.
#UkraineWar

https://t.co/9AO4mI9CTw

What obligations does a country under war have to democracy? The question remains unanswered for Ukraine case of Ukraine’s 2024 presidential election, the impact of martial law on the democratic process is particularly ambiguous. Currently, Ukraine is an aspiring double meaning. https://t.co/ywkSnxGo1o

An old article that tells us exactly who Zelenskyy and Ukraine are...

Ukraine Worked With Democrats Against Trump in Election 2016 to Stop Putin. That Bet Backfired Badly.  https://t.co/hg9E6Si601

Ukraine's presidential election may be held in July, as reported by The Economist, with Volodymyr Zelensky aiming to catch rivals off guard with a surprise announcement. Discussions and opposition to alternative proposals, such as a UN-mandated transitional administration suggested by Putin, highlight the contentious atmosphere surrounding the potential vote.

Summer Election Plans

The presidential election in Ukraine may be held in July, The Economist reports, citing a source in the Ukrainian government:
https://t.co/Wqbs257qs6 https://t.co/avACoMZxiy

Volodymyr Zelensky should immediately resign and declare election for the sake of Ukraine and Ukrainians. 

What is your opinion?

YES or NO? https://t.co/t2UJ47kkGs

The modelling was finished in Dec 2021.

The Ukraine war started in Feb 2022.

Labor promised to decease electricity prices by $275 by 2025 right up until the election in May 2022.

The ‘international factors’ were already present yet Albo was still spruiking this promise #auspol https://t.co/910RvK9Bkq https://t.co/nd13MvGPby

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Zelensky rejette l’«administration transitoire» voulue par Poutine. le président russe avait proposé de placer l’Ukraine sous mandat onusien pour organiser de nouvelles élections mais le comédien de Kiev ne veut pas entendre parler d'élection! 

🧐Pourtant, pour une paix https://t.co/aoXgArSHBH

There was a campaign and a election. That campaign PROMISED no more endless wars. To end the deep state. 
This is not the United States of Ukraine.
This is not the United States of Israel.
This is the United States of America. The working people of USA want tax money to stay in

Putin is exactly right.  Zelensky is a corrupt stooge who can't be trusted.  Ukraine should have a legitimate election so that peace can be negotiated in good faith with someone who actually represents the people of Ukraine.

https://t.co/9Hj55XF1TE https://t.co/fF3d372dTc

The Economist: Ukraine's presidential election could be held in July

Zelensky will try to catch his rivals off guard with a surprise election announcement.

@ukr_leaks_eng

Government sources say Volodymyr Zelensky called a meeting recently to task his team with organising a vote after a full ceasefire. The exact timeline for an election is uncertain, but sources say Ukraine’s leader is aiming for summer https://t.co/x4OXreEnrb

Nearly 56,000 voters are still registered in destroyed Bakhmut – Ukraine's Central Election Commission head https://t.co/CwjuDsvcuW

❌ Ukraine election held in 2025?

83,687.00 Yes shares sold by Sylendriel for $27,616.71 ($0.330)
https://t.co/gSeq2Lzjyf

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Volodymyr Zelenskyy to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Zelenskyy announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zelensky resigns in 2025?

If Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits Russia between September 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Zelenskyy physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Zelenskyy enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of Ukraine, official information from Zelenskyy, or information released by his verified social media accounts; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Russia in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.  

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. 

If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.

Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.  

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. 

If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.

Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is confined in a jail or prison for any length of time by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

House arrest will not qualify toward the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the detaining government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy in jail by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede territory under its control in Russia’s Kursk Oblast is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.  

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia regains territory in the Kursk Oblast through military action, or if Ukraine unilaterally cedes Russian territory absent of a diplomatic process or agreement, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin talk by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

A talk is defined as any interaction between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.

Events that occurred prior to the start of this market will not qualify toward its resolution.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date for the next Polish parliamentary election is set between June 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Polish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Poland however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polish snap election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Romanian parliamentary election is officially scheduled between July 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market is about whether a date for the next Romanian parliamentary election is formally announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Romania Parliamentary Election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia.

For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however drone pilots or infantry directly attacking Russian troops, or soldiers targeting and downing missiles from Ukrainian soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO or EU member country officially announces that they will be sending troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must be part of a formal agreement between a NATO or EU member country and another country or international organization or otherwise indicative of a formalized policy.

Announcements which are statements of intent, contingent, or otherwise are not indicative of a formalized policy will not count

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. 

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.

An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.

An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.

The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.


Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following:

1. A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.S.-endorsed framework.

2. An official U.S.–Ukraine announcement — defined as an official government-issued declaration, such as a joint statement, communiqué, or coordinated official releases, explicitly stating that Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework. The announcement must be issued through authorized government channels, including official written releases or formally published transcripts by the White House, State Department, Office of the President of Ukraine, Cabinet of Ministers, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Verbal (including interviews or remarks during bilateral meetings) and social-media claims by either leader will not qualify unless later issued in an official written or published form by the respective government. The U.S. President or any US government official publicly stating that “an agreement has been reached,” without a corresponding formal release or communiqué, will not qualify; the same applies to statements by the Ukrainian President or Ukrainian officials.

3. A formally issued Ukrainian governmental action — including a presidential decree, Cabinet resolution, or National Security and Defense Council decision — explicitly stating that Ukraine agrees to the U.S.-endorsed framework. 

The primary resolution source will be official government documents, statements, decrees, and credible reporting confirming that Ukraine officially agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework under the standards above.


Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


French election called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an agreement on an official buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "buffer zone" is defined as a neutral or otherwise militarily restricted area that lies between the territories of Russia and Ukraine and is intended to reduce or manage conflict between them.

A qualifying buffer zone does not need to cover a minimum geographic area, nor require the withdrawal of all categories of weapons or personnel. It is sufficient that the agreement explicitly demonstrates mutual intent to suspend offensive military action within the designated zone, for example, by stipulating the withdrawal of heavy artillery, armored vehicles, etc.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the buffer zone is established formally by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, announcements of a partial implementation, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.

A mutual agreement on a buffer zone will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of potential subsequent violations of such an agreement.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a broad consensus of credible media reporting stating an official agreement regarding a buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf

Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces strikes Moscow municipality, or any target within the municipality, between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.

Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. 

Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.


Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 23, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Putin out as president of Russia
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Trump visits Russia
- Putin meets Zelensky
- Russia invades a NATO country

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/RU1.png 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/RU2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine conducts at least one combat strike using a Tomahawk cruise missiles by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Tests used outside of combat will not qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. or Ukrainian government. Credible video or photo evidence, or reporting from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, BBC, Der Spiegel, DW, Le Monde, Sky News, Al Jazeera, The Kyiv Independent and The Guardian may also be used. 

Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ursula Von der Leyen ceases to be President of the European Commission for any length of time between May 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Von der Leyen departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the European Commission, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Ukraine election held by...?

December 31, 2025
$1,574,891 Vol.
<1%

June 30, 2026
$13,365 Vol.
24%
0123456789
%

December 31, 2026
$664 Vol.
42%
0123456789
%

Market Context

Ukraine election held by...?

Rules

Ukraine election held by...?

Market Context

Ukraine election held by...?

About

Related

Ukraine election held by...?

December 31, 2025$1,574,891 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.4¢buy No99.8¢

June 30, 2026$13,365 Vol.24%0123456789%buy Yes25¢buy No78¢

December 31, 2026$664 Vol.42%0123456789%buy Yes43¢buy No60¢

Market Context

Ukraine election held by...?

Rules

Ukraine election held by...?

Market Context

Ukraine election held by...?

About

Related

December 31, 2025
$1,574,891 Vol.
<1%

June 30, 2026
$13,365 Vol.
24%
0123456789
%

December 31, 2026
$664 Vol.
42%
0123456789
%