Fed Rates Predictions & Real-Time Odds | Polymarket

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Fed Rates

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

$399m Vol.

$11m today

$58m Liq.

1,248

Ends in 11 months

98%

Kevin Warsh

$399m Vol.

$11m today

$58m Liq.

1,248

Ends in 11 months

Fed decision in March?

Fed Rates

Fed decision in March?

$58m Vol.

$4m today

$4m Liq.

418

Ends in about 1 month

91%

No change

$58m Vol.

$4m today

$4m Liq.

418

Ends in about 1 month

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Fed Rates

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$4m Vol.

$100.0k today

$850k Liq.

35

Ends in 11 months

26%

3 (75 bps)

$4m Vol.

$100.0k today

$850k Liq.

35

Ends in 11 months

Fed decision in April?

Fed Rates

Fed decision in April?

$1m Vol.

$398k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

78%

No change

$1m Vol.

$398k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Fed Decision in June?

Fed Rates

Fed Decision in June?

$141k Vol.

$284k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

49%

25 bps decrease

$141k Vol.

$284k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Fed Rates

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

$769k Vol.

$75.4k Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

90%

Cut–Pause–Pause

$769k Vol.

$75.4k Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Fed Rates

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

$852k Vol.

$105k Liq.

31

Ends in 3 months

8%

May 14

$852k Vol.

$105k Liq.

31

Ends in 3 months

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

Fed Rates

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

$183k Vol.

$18.0k Liq.

32

Ends in 5 months

3%

$183k Vol.

$18.0k Liq.

32

Ends in 5 months

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Fed Rates

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$564k Vol.

$183k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

89%

↓ 3.25%

$564k Vol.

$183k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Fed Rates

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

$125k Vol.

$188k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

30%

3.0%

$125k Vol.

$188k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed Rates

Fed rate cut by...?

$709k Vol.

$75.1k Liq.

3

Ends in 4 months

67%

June Meeting

$709k Vol.

$75.1k Liq.

3

Ends in 4 months

Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision?

Fed Rates

Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision?

$4.2k Vol.

$2.2k Liq.

3

Ends in about 1 month

79%

$4.2k Vol.

$2.2k Liq.

3

Ends in about 1 month

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

Fed Rates

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

$59.3k Vol.

$6.2k Liq.

2

15%

$59.3k Vol.

$6.2k Liq.

2

Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates

Fed Rates

Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates

$20.6k Vol.

$4.4k Liq.

3

Ends in about 1 month

82%

$20.6k Vol.

$4.4k Liq.

3

Ends in about 1 month

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Fed Rates

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

$51.5k Vol.

$74.6k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

71%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$51.5k Vol.

$74.6k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31?

Fed Rates

Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31?

$1.8k Vol.

$2.5k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

6%

$1.8k Vol.

$2.5k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed Rates

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

$3.8k Vol.

$127k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

44%

Pause–Pause–Cut

$3.8k Vol.

$127k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Jerome Powell arrested by March 31?

Fed Rates

Jerome Powell arrested by March 31?

$31.3k Vol.

$8.9k Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

2%

$31.3k Vol.

$8.9k Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Fed Rates

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

$79.3k Vol.

$14.6k Liq.

4

Ends in 11 months

72%

December 31

$79.3k Vol.

$14.6k Liq.

4

Ends in 11 months

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed Rates

Fed rate hike in 2026?

$33.8k Vol.

$12.0k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

12%

$33.8k Vol.

$12.0k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

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