Fed Rates Predictions & Real-Time Odds | Polymarket

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Fed Rates

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

$394m Vol.

$11m today

$55m Liq.

1,220

Ends in 11 months

97%

Kevin Warsh

$394m Vol.

$11m today

$55m Liq.

1,220

Ends in 11 months

Fed decision in March?

Fed Rates

Fed decision in March?

$56m Vol.

$5m today

$4m Liq.

418

Ends in about 1 month

91%

No change

$56m Vol.

$5m today

$4m Liq.

418

Ends in about 1 month

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Fed Rates

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$4m Vol.

$90.4k today

$840k Liq.

35

Ends in 11 months

27%

3 (75 bps)

$4m Vol.

$90.4k today

$840k Liq.

35

Ends in 11 months

Fed decision in April?

Fed Rates

Fed decision in April?

$1m Vol.

$54.9k today

$397k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

78%

No change

$1m Vol.

$54.9k today

$397k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Fed Decision in June?

Fed Rates

Fed Decision in June?

$129k Vol.

$281k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

46%

25 bps decrease

$129k Vol.

$281k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

Fed Rates

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

$181k Vol.

$16.6k Liq.

32

Ends in 5 months

3%

$181k Vol.

$16.6k Liq.

32

Ends in 5 months

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Fed Rates

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

$847k Vol.

$89.8k Liq.

31

Ends in 3 months

8%

May 14

$847k Vol.

$89.8k Liq.

31

Ends in 3 months

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Fed Rates

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$561k Vol.

$182k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

89%

↓ 3.25%

$561k Vol.

$182k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Fed Rates

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

$747k Vol.

$66.5k Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

90%

Cut–Pause–Pause

$747k Vol.

$66.5k Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed Rates

Fed rate cut by...?

$709k Vol.

$84.0k Liq.

3

Ends in 4 months

74%

June Meeting

$709k Vol.

$84.0k Liq.

3

Ends in 4 months

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Fed Rates

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

$123k Vol.

$183k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

32%

3.0%

$123k Vol.

$183k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision?

Fed Rates

Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision?

$3.8k Vol.

$2.9k Liq.

3

Ends in about 1 month

76%

$3.8k Vol.

$2.9k Liq.

3

Ends in about 1 month

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed Rates

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

$3.8k Vol.

$126k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

43%

Pause–Pause–Cut

$3.8k Vol.

$126k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Fed Rates

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

$79.3k Vol.

$12.9k Liq.

4

Ends in 11 months

73%

December 31

$79.3k Vol.

$12.9k Liq.

4

Ends in 11 months

Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates

Fed Rates

Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates

$20.4k Vol.

$4.5k Liq.

3

Ends in about 1 month

78%

$20.4k Vol.

$4.5k Liq.

3

Ends in about 1 month

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

Fed Rates

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

$57.6k Vol.

$11.3k Liq.

2

15%

$57.6k Vol.

$11.3k Liq.

2

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed Rates

Fed rate hike in 2026?

$33.7k Vol.

$12.5k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

13%

$33.7k Vol.

$12.5k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

Jerome Powell arrested by March 31?

Fed Rates

Jerome Powell arrested by March 31?

$31.0k Vol.

$10.5k Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

2%

$31.0k Vol.

$10.5k Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

Fed Rates

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

$71.9k Vol.

$23.6k Liq.

7

Ends in about 2 months

45%

4.4%

$71.9k Vol.

$23.6k Liq.

7

Ends in about 2 months

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Fed Rates

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

$41.2k Vol.

$19.9k Liq.

1

Ends in 11 months

76%

4.0%

$41.2k Vol.

$19.9k Liq.

1

Ends in 11 months

Sort by

Event Status