Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Fed Rates

Politics

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

97%

Kevin Warsh

$402m Vol.

$9m today

$60m Liq.

1,273

Ends in 11 months

Fed decision in March?

Fed Rates

Politics

Fed decision in March?

91%

No change

$59m Vol.

$4m today

$4m Liq.

418

Ends in about 1 month

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Fed Rates

Business

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

26%

2 (50 bps)

$4m Vol.

$93.5k today

$833k Liq.

35

Ends in 11 months

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Fed Rates

Finance

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

90%

Cut–Pause–Pause

$769k Vol.

$76.0k Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

Fed Decision in June?

Fed Rates

Politics

Fed Decision in June?

49%

25 bps decrease

$142k Vol.

$285k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Fed decision in April?

Fed Rates

Politics

Fed decision in April?

77%

No change

$1m Vol.

$398k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Fed Rates

Politics

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

8%

May 14

$861k Vol.

$106k Liq.

31

Ends in 3 months

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

Fed Rates

Trump

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

26%

$64.5k Vol.

$4.1k Liq.

2

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

Fed Rates

Politics

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

3%

$184k Vol.

$16.2k Liq.

32

Ends in 5 months

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Fed Rates

Politics

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

89%

↓ 3.25%

$564k Vol.

$179k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Fed Rates

Politics

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

28%

3.0%

$127k Vol.

$187k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed Rates

Finance

Fed rate cut by...?

74%

June Meeting

$710k Vol.

$77.0k Liq.

3

Ends in 4 months

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Fed Rates

Fed

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

71%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$51.5k Vol.

$74.8k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31?

Fed Rates

Politics

Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31?

7%

$1.8k Vol.

$2.4k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates

Fed Rates

Finance

Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates

79%

$20.9k Vol.

$4.3k Liq.

4

Ends in about 1 month

Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision?

Fed Rates

Fed

Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision?

80%

$4.2k Vol.

$2.4k Liq.

3

Ends in about 1 month

Fed cuts 25 bps in March Odds >15% by February 13?

Fed Rates

Politics

Fed cuts 25 bps in March Odds >15% by February 13?

22%

$1.1k Vol.

$1.1k Liq.

Ends in 8 days

Jerome Powell arrested by March 31?

Fed Rates

Politics

Jerome Powell arrested by March 31?

2%

$31.3k Vol.

$10.7k Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Fed Rates

Business

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

16%

$16.0k Vol.

$12.4k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed Rates

Fed

Fed rate hike in 2026?

12%

$34.0k Vol.

$12.0k Liq.

Ends in 10 months