Market icon

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

3 (75 bps) 26%

2 (50 bps) 23%

4 (100 bps) 15%

1 (25 bps) 12%

$3,687,767 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$3,687,767
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Beware of external links.

Market icon

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

3 (75 bps) 26%

2 (50 bps) 23%

4 (100 bps) 15%

1 (25 bps) 12%

$3,687,767 Vol.

0 (0 bps)

$598,023 Vol.

6%

1 (25 bps)

$313,564 Vol.

12%

2 (50 bps)

$325,281 Vol.

23%

3 (75 bps)

$229,023 Vol.

26%

4 (100 bps)

$209,438 Vol.

15%

5 (125 bps)

$223,108 Vol.

7%

6 (150 bps)

$265,648 Vol.

4%

7 (175 bps)

$202,863 Vol.

2%

8 (200 bps)

$304,044 Vol.

1%

9 (225 bps)

$228,935 Vol.

1%

10 (250 bps)

$243,606 Vol.

1%

11 (275 bps)

$264,546 Vol.

1%

12+ (300+ bps)

$279,689 Vol.

2%

About

Volume
$3,687,767
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Beware of external links.