Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

98%

Kevin Warsh

$375m Vol.

$12m today

$54m Liq.

1,138

Ends in 11 months

Fed decision in March?

Fed decision in March?

90%

No change

$46m Vol.

$8m today

$4m Liq.

418

Ends in about 1 month

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

26%

3 (75 bps)

$4m Vol.

$73.6k today

$851k Liq.

34

Ends in 11 months

Kevin Warsh formally nominated as Fed Chair by...?

Kevin Warsh formally nominated as Fed Chair by...?

96%

February 28

$24.3k Vol.

$9.5k Liq.

4

Ends in 25 days

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

89%

Cut–Pause–Pause

$735k Vol.

$86.4k Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

49%

25 bps decrease

$79.5k Vol.

$283k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Fed decision in April?

Fed decision in April?

75%

No change

$1m Vol.

$393k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

8%

May 14

$836k Vol.

$115k Liq.

30

Ends in 3 months

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

30%

3.0%

$121k Vol.

$187k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

90%

↓ 3.25%

$555k Vol.

$179k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

84%

$3.0k Vol.

$11.9k Liq.

2

Ends in 3 months

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

45%

4.4%

$71.5k Vol.

$30.9k Liq.

7

Ends in about 2 months

Will Christopher Waller dissent the next Fed Decision?

Will Christopher Waller dissent the next Fed Decision?

57%

$1.6k Vol.

$1.3k Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

6%

$154k Vol.

$19.7k Liq.

32

Ends in 5 months

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

74%

June Meeting

$704k Vol.

$74.7k Liq.

3

Ends in 4 months

Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

76%

Thom Tillis

$1.2k Vol.

$7.2k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates

Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates

83%

$19.7k Vol.

$4.4k Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

Jerome Powell arrested by March 31?

Jerome Powell arrested by March 31?

2%

$30.9k Vol.

$8.6k Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision?

Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision?

90%

$2.5k Vol.

$1.5k Liq.

3

Ends in about 1 month

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

21%

$39.6k Vol.

$6.4k Liq.

2