Economic Policy predictions & odds

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Fed decision in January?

Economic Policy

Fed decision in January?

$591m Vol.

$55m today

$12m Liq.

1,369

99%

No change

$591m Vol.

$55m today

$12m Liq.

1,369

Fed decision in March?

Economic Policy

Fed decision in March?

$5m Vol.

$302k today

$637k Liq.

418

Ends in about 2 months

83%

No change

$5m Vol.

$302k today

$637k Liq.

418

Ends in about 2 months

ECB Interest Rates: February 2026

Economic Policy

ECB Interest Rates: February 2026

$568k Vol.

$61.6k today

$31.9k Liq.

Ends in 8 days

99%

No change

$568k Vol.

$61.6k today

$31.9k Liq.

Ends in 8 days

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Economic Policy

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$3m Vol.

$845k Liq.

30

Ends in 11 months

25%

3 (75 bps)

$3m Vol.

$845k Liq.

30

Ends in 11 months

Fed rate cut by...?

Economic Policy

Fed rate cut by...?

$604k Vol.

$112k Liq.

3

Ends in 5 months

69%

June Meeting

$604k Vol.

$112k Liq.

3

Ends in 5 months

Fed decision in April?

Economic Policy

Fed decision in April?

$933k Vol.

$375k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

72%

No change

$933k Vol.

$375k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Economic Policy

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

$545k Vol.

$109k Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

85%

Cut–Pause–Pause

$545k Vol.

$109k Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

Bank of Japan Decision in March?

Economic Policy

Bank of Japan Decision in March?

$176k Vol.

$19.8k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

76%

No change

$176k Vol.

$19.8k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

GDP growth in 2025

Economic Policy

Democratic Presidential Nomination

GDP growth in 2025

$911k Vol.

$31.6k Liq.

15

Ends in about 24 hours

84%

2.0–2.5%

$911k Vol.

$31.6k Liq.

15

Ends in about 24 hours

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Economic Policy

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$504k Vol.

$156k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

88%

↓ 3.25%

$504k Vol.

$156k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Economic Policy

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

$1m Vol.

$120k Liq.

15

Ends in 3 days

99%

Cut–Cut–Pause

$1m Vol.

$120k Liq.

15

Ends in 3 days

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Economic Policy

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

$715k Vol.

$113k Liq.

28

Ends in 4 months

8%

May 14

$715k Vol.

$113k Liq.

28

Ends in 4 months

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

Economic Policy

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

$35.0k Vol.

$22.6k Liq.

53%

1

$35.0k Vol.

$22.6k Liq.

Fed Decision & Dissent Combo in January?

Economic Policy

Fed Decision & Dissent Combo in January?

$24.3k Vol.

$14.1k Liq.

53%

No change, Dissents: <2

$24.3k Vol.

$14.1k Liq.

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in February

Economic Policy

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in February

$123k Vol.

$5.5k Liq.

Ends in 6 days

59%

Increase

$123k Vol.

$5.5k Liq.

Ends in 6 days

Bank of Israel Decision in February?

Economic Policy

Bank of Israel Decision in February?

$35.1k Vol.

$8.6k Liq.

Ends in 26 days

85%

No Change

$35.1k Vol.

$8.6k Liq.

Ends in 26 days

US GDP growth in Q4 2025?

Economic Policy

US GDP growth in Q4 2025?

$272k Vol.

$36.8k Liq.

2

Ends in about 24 hours

71%

>3.5%

$272k Vol.

$36.8k Liq.

2

Ends in about 24 hours

Bank of Mexico decision in February?

Economic Policy

Bank of Mexico decision in February?

$52.1k Vol.

$20.9k Liq.

Ends in 8 days

92%

No change

$52.1k Vol.

$20.9k Liq.

Ends in 8 days

Central Bank of Colombia decision in January?

Economic Policy

Central Bank of Colombia decision in January?

$42.6k Vol.

$8.0k Liq.

Ends in 2 days

88%

Increase

$42.6k Vol.

$8.0k Liq.

Ends in 2 days

US recession by end of 2026?

Economic Policy

US recession by end of 2026?

$189k Vol.

$31.0k Liq.

22

Ends in about 1 year

26%

$189k Vol.

$31.0k Liq.

22

Ends in about 1 year

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