Name: How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?
Start: 2025-12-09T19:24:39.90462Z
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

5.0%

4.4%

4.6%

4.3%

4.5%

4.8%

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

4.3%
$492 Vol.
59%

4.4%
$100 Vol.
58%

4.5%
$245 Vol.
21%
0123456789
0123456789
%

4.6%
$195 Vol.
15%
0123456789
%

4.8%
$13 Vol.
8%

5.0%
$32 Vol.
7%

Market Context

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

Rules

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

Market Context

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

About

Related

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

4.3%$492 Vol.59%buy Yes63¢buy No45¢

4.4%$100 Vol.58%buy Yes71¢buy No55¢

4.5%$245 Vol.21%01234567890123456789%buy Yes26¢buy No84¢

4.6%$195 Vol.15%0123456789%buy Yes20¢buy No91¢

4.8%$13 Vol.8%buy Yes15¢buy No99¢

5.0%$32 Vol.7%buy Yes10¢buy No97¢

Market Context

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

Rules

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

Market Context

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

About

Related

4.3%
$492 Vol.
59%

4.4%
$100 Vol.
58%

4.5%
$245 Vol.
21%
0123456789
0123456789
%

4.6%
$195 Vol.
15%
0123456789
%

4.8%
$13 Vol.
8%

5.0%
$32 Vol.
7%