Fed Rates Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

Economy

Economy

Fed decision in January? card icon

Fed decision in January?

50+ bps decrease

<1%

25 bps decrease

<1%

50+ bps decrease

<1%

25 bps decrease

<1%

$591m Vol.

Monthly
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? card icon

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Rick Rieder

48%

Kevin Warsh

29%

Rick Rieder

48%

Kevin Warsh

29%

$272m Vol.

Fed decision in March? card icon

Fed decision in March?

50+ bps decrease

1%

25 bps decrease

15%

50+ bps decrease

1%

25 bps decrease

15%

$5m Vol.

Monthly
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? card icon

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)

8%

1 (25 bps)

12%

0 (0 bps)

8%

1 (25 bps)

12%

$3m Vol.

Fed rate cut by...? card icon

Fed rate cut by...?

January Meeting

1%

March Meeting

19%

January Meeting

1%

March Meeting

19%

$604k Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? card icon

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.4%

76%

4.5%

-

4.4%

76%

4.5%

-

$65k Vol.

Weekly
Fed decision in April? card icon

Fed decision in April?

50+ bps decrease

2%

25 bps decrease

24%

50+ bps decrease

2%

25 bps decrease

24%

$932k Vol.

Monthly
Fed decisions (Dec-Mar) card icon

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Cut–Pause–Pause

85%

Cut–Pause–Cut

14%

Cut–Pause–Pause

85%

Cut–Pause–Cut

14%

$545k Vol.

Daily
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? card icon

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 5.5%

3%

↑ 5.25%

2%

↑ 5.5%

3%

↑ 5.25%

2%

$504k Vol.

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) card icon

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Cut–Cut–Pause

99%

Cut–Cut–Cut

1%

Cut–Cut–Pause

99%

Cut–Cut–Cut

1%

$1m Vol.

Daily
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...? card icon

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

March 31

4%

May 14

8%

March 31

4%

May 14

8%

$715k Vol.

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting? card icon

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

0

2%

1

53%

0

2%

1

53%

$35k Vol.

Daily
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31? card icon

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

4.4%

31%

4.5%

19%

4.4%

31%

4.5%

19%

$65k Vol.