Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)
$210,008 Vol.
Cut–Pause–Pause 50%
Cut–Pause–Cut 30%
Cut–Cut–Pause 9%
Cut–Cut–Cut 8.2%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
Cut–Pause–Pause
$10,141 Vol.
50%
Cut–Pause–Pause
$10,141 Vol.
50%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$6,014 Vol.
30%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$6,014 Vol.
30%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$10,765 Vol.
9%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$10,765 Vol.
9%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$27,824 Vol.
8%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$27,824 Vol.
8%
Other
$5,689 Vol.
3%
Other
$5,689 Vol.
3%
Rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Created At: Nov 4, 2025, 5:12 PM UTC
Volume
$210,008End Date
Mar 18, 2026Created At
Nov 4, 2025, 5:12 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...$210,008 Vol.
Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)
Cut–Pause–Pause 50%
Cut–Pause–Cut 30%
Cut–Cut–Pause 9%
Cut–Cut–Cut 8.2%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
Cut–Pause–Pause
$10,141 Vol.
50%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$6,014 Vol.
30%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$10,765 Vol.
9%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$27,824 Vol.
8%
Other
$5,689 Vol.
3%
About
Volume
$210,008End Date
Mar 18, 2026Created At
Nov 4, 2025, 5:12 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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