Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)
Cut–Pause–Pause 84%
Cut–Pause–Cut 13%
Other 2.7%
Cut–Cut–Pause <1%
$604,231 Vol.
$604,231 Vol.
Mar 18, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$56,939 Vol.
84%
Cut–Pause–Pause
$56,939 Vol.
84%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$28,168 Vol.
13%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$28,168 Vol.
13%
Other
$93,963 Vol.
3%
Other
$93,963 Vol.
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$77,254 Vol.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$77,254 Vol.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$198,332 Vol.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$198,332 Vol.
<1%
Rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Created At: Nov 4, 2025, 12:12 PM ET
Volume
$604,231End Date
Mar 18, 2026Created At
Nov 4, 2025, 12:12 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)
Cut–Pause–Pause 84%
Cut–Pause–Cut 13%
Other 2.7%
Cut–Cut–Pause <1%
$604,231 Vol.
$604,231 Vol.
Mar 18, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$56,939 Vol.
84%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$28,168 Vol.
13%
Other
$93,963 Vol.
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$77,254 Vol.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$198,332 Vol.
<1%
About
Volume
$604,231End Date
Mar 18, 2026Created At
Nov 4, 2025, 12:12 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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