Technology

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

chance

$1m Vol.

How many inches of snow in Washington D.C. in January?

7-9

89%

9-11

7-9

89%

9-11

NEW

•

$57k Vol.

How many inches of snow in NYC in January?

12-14

54%

14-16

39%

12-14

54%

14-16

39%

NEW

•

$43k Vol.

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

January 31

10%

March 31

90%

January 31

10%

March 31

90%

$142k Vol.

Daily

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑500

100%

↑1k

99%

↑500

100%

↑1k

99%

$6m Vol.

Monthly

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes Jan 26 - Feb 1?

66%

27%

66%

27%

NEW

•

$62k Vol.

Weekly

January 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

<1.00ºC

1.00–1.04ºC

<1.00ºC

1.00–1.04ºC

$470k Vol.

Monthly

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

January 31

<1%

February 28

January 31

<1%

February 28

$583k Vol.

Measles cases in U.S. by January 31?

500

98%

600

90%

500

98%

600

90%

$285k Vol.

Monthly

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

12%

27%

12%

27%

$1m Vol.

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

5–7

$366k Vol.

Daily

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

chance

$21k Vol.

Precipitation in NYC in January?

<3"

89%

3-4"

<3"

89%

3-4"

$19k Vol.

2026 January 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

1st hottest

2nd hottest

1st hottest

2nd hottest

$328k Vol.

Monthly

Precipitation in Seattle in January?

<3"

31%

3-4"

55%

<3"

31%

3-4"

55%

$13k Vol.

Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 3, 2026?

<30

30 - 40

<30

30 - 40

NEW

Daily

NASA Artemis II

February 7

32%

February 28

72%

February 7

32%

February 28

72%

$10k Vol.

Human moon landing in 2026?

chance

$29k Vol.

How many Tornadoes in the US in January?

<30

97%

30–59

<30

97%

30–59

$497k Vol.

Daily

How many SpaceX launches in January?

<1%

$97k Vol.

Science Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

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