Elon Musk predictions & odds

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Elon Musk

SpaceX

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap

$1m Vol.

$132k Liq.

Ends in almost 2 years

73%

1T+

$1m Vol.

$132k Liq.

Ends in almost 2 years

Elon Musk

Grok 4.20 released on...?

$45.9k Vol.

$32.8k Liq.

Ends in 12 days

84%

No release by February 14

$45.9k Vol.

$32.8k Liq.

Ends in 12 days

Elon Musk

Business

How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?

$248k Vol.

$23.4k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

59%

<350k

$248k Vol.

$23.4k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Elon Musk

Grok 4.20 released by...?

$556k Vol.

$10.9k Liq.

116

97%

March 31

$556k Vol.

$10.9k Liq.

116

Elon Musk

SpaceX

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

$109k Vol.

$6.9k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

31%

7-8

$109k Vol.

$6.9k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?

Elon Musk

Science

SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?

$31.4k Vol.

$3.6k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

63%

$31.4k Vol.

$3.6k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Elon Musk

SpaceX

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

$335k Vol.

$42.4k Liq.

Ends in almost 2 years

78%

>$1T

$335k Vol.

$42.4k Liq.

Ends in almost 2 years

Elon Musk

SpaceX

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

$766k Vol.

$8.9k Liq.

63%

Successful splash down?

$766k Vol.

$8.9k Liq.

Elon Musk

SpaceX

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

$2m Vol.

$60.8k Liq.

Ends in almost 2 years

41%

$2m Vol.

$60.8k Liq.

Ends in almost 2 years

Elon Musk

Business

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

$2m Vol.

$87.4k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

$2m Vol.

$87.4k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Elon Musk

Business

Richest person on March 31?

$104k Vol.

$64.2k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

96%

Elon Musk

$104k Vol.

$64.2k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Elon Musk

Business

Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

$282k Vol.

$12.8k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

69%

$282k Vol.

$12.8k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Elon Musk

Culture

Elon Musk Net Worth on February 28?

$3.7k Vol.

$12.5k Liq.

Ends in 26 days

53%

700b+

$3.7k Vol.

$12.5k Liq.

Ends in 26 days

Elon Musk

Business

3rd richest person on March 31?

$12.0k Vol.

$13.6k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

49%

Sergey Brin

$12.0k Vol.

$13.6k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Elon Musk

xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

$2.5k Vol.

$3.0k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

72%

25%+

$2.5k Vol.

$3.0k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Elon Musk

SpaceX

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

$12.8k Vol.

$4.3k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

18%

$12.8k Vol.

$4.3k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Elon Musk

SpaceX

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes)

$59.4k Vol.

$39.6k Liq.

Ends in almost 2 years

28%

2.0T+

$59.4k Vol.

$39.6k Liq.

Ends in almost 2 years

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

Elon Musk

Business

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

$14.2k Vol.

$2.2k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

36%

$14.2k Vol.

$2.2k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Elon Musk

Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30?

$1.5k Vol.

$1.6k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

11%

$1.5k Vol.

$1.6k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Elon Musk

Business

3rd richest person on December 31?

$14.0k Vol.

$12.2k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

35%

Sergey Brin

$14.0k Vol.

$12.2k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

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