Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Name: Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Start: 2025-11-13T23:20:40.91804Z
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00Z

Jan 31

Mar 31

17% chance

$70,393 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Lebanese territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Created At: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET

Volume

$70,393

End Date

Mar 31, 2026

Created At

Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...