Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Who's out first: Benjamin Netanyahu or Yahya Sinwar?

Netanyahu

<1% chance

$47,313 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve to the name of the leader who leaves/is removed from power first.

This market will resolve to "Netanyahu" if Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel before Yahya Sinwar is out as leader of Hamas. This market will resolve to "Sinwar" if Yahya Sinwar is out as the leader of Hamas before Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel.

If both leaders remain in power uninterruptedly from December 26, 2023, through October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$47,313
End Date
Oct 31, 2024
Created At
Dec 28, 2023, 1:29 PM ET
This market will resolve to the name of the leader who leaves/is removed from power first. This market will resolve to "Netanyahu" if Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel before Yahya Sinwar is out as leader of Hamas. This market will resolve to "Sinwar" if Yahya Sinwar is out as the leader of Hamas before Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel. If both leaders remain in power uninterruptedly from December 26, 2023, through October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: Netanyahu

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Sinwar

No dispute

Final outcome: Sinwar

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Who's out first: Benjamin Netanyahu or Yahya Sinwar?

Netanyahu

<1% chance

$47,313 Vol.

About

This market will resolve to the name of the leader who leaves/is removed from power first.

This market will resolve to "Netanyahu" if Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel before Yahya Sinwar is out as leader of Hamas. This market will resolve to "Sinwar" if Yahya Sinwar is out as the leader of Hamas before Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel.

If both leaders remain in power uninterruptedly from December 26, 2023, through October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$47,313
End Date
Oct 31, 2024
Created At
Dec 28, 2023, 1:29 PM ET
This market will resolve to the name of the leader who leaves/is removed from power first. This market will resolve to "Netanyahu" if Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel before Yahya Sinwar is out as leader of Hamas. This market will resolve to "Sinwar" if Yahya Sinwar is out as the leader of Hamas before Benjamin Netanyahu is out as the Prime Minister of Israel. If both leaders remain in power uninterruptedly from December 26, 2023, through October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: Netanyahu

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Sinwar

No dispute

Final outcome: Sinwar

Beware of external links.