US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28 50%
January 2026 9%
February 1 5.5%
February 7 3.9%
$302,218 Vol.
$302,218 Vol.
January 2026
$17,954 Vol.
9%
January 2026
$17,954 Vol.
9%
February 1
$16,259 Vol.
6%
February 1
$16,259 Vol.
6%
February 2
$9,961 Vol.
3%
February 2
$9,961 Vol.
3%
February 3
$9,976 Vol.
2%
February 3
$9,976 Vol.
2%
February 4
$10,576 Vol.
2%
February 4
$10,576 Vol.
2%
February 5
$9,290 Vol.
2%
February 5
$9,290 Vol.
2%
February 6
$8,301 Vol.
3%
February 6
$8,301 Vol.
3%
February 7
$10,235 Vol.
4%
February 7
$10,235 Vol.
4%
February 8
$10,057 Vol.
1%
February 8
$10,057 Vol.
1%
February 9
$8,140 Vol.
1%
February 9
$8,140 Vol.
1%
February 10
$9,410 Vol.
1%
February 10
$9,410 Vol.
1%
February 11
$7,701 Vol.
1%
February 11
$7,701 Vol.
1%
February 12
$12,045 Vol.
1%
February 12
$12,045 Vol.
1%
February 13
$10,172 Vol.
2%
February 13
$10,172 Vol.
2%
February 14
$8,398 Vol.
2%
February 14
$8,398 Vol.
2%
February 15
$7,917 Vol.
1%
February 15
$7,917 Vol.
1%
February 16
$7,209 Vol.
1%
February 16
$7,209 Vol.
1%
February 17
$8,440 Vol.
1%
February 17
$8,440 Vol.
1%
February 18
$7,541 Vol.
1%
February 18
$7,541 Vol.
1%
February 19
$7,725 Vol.
1%
February 19
$7,725 Vol.
1%
February 20
$8,979 Vol.
2%
February 20
$8,979 Vol.
2%
February 21
$8,391 Vol.
2%
February 21
$8,391 Vol.
2%
February 22
$8,735 Vol.
1%
February 22
$8,735 Vol.
1%
February 23
$7,362 Vol.
1%
February 23
$7,362 Vol.
1%
February 24
$8,359 Vol.
1%
February 24
$8,359 Vol.
1%
February 25
$15,935 Vol.
2%
February 25
$15,935 Vol.
2%
February 26
$10,892 Vol.
1%
February 26
$10,892 Vol.
1%
February 27
$12,526 Vol.
2%
February 27
$12,526 Vol.
2%
February 28
$9,527 Vol.
2%
February 28
$9,527 Vol.
2%
No strike by February 28
$14,204 Vol.
50%
No strike by February 28
$14,204 Vol.
50%
Rules
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 27, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28 50%
January 2026 9%
February 1 5.5%
February 7 3.9%
$302,218 Vol.
$302,218 Vol.
January 2026
9%
February 1
6%
February 2
3%
February 3
2%
February 4
2%
February 5
2%
February 6
3%
February 7
4%
February 8
1%
February 9
1%
February 10
1%
February 11
1%
February 12
1%
February 13
2%
February 14
2%
February 15
1%
February 16
1%
February 17
1%
February 18
1%
February 19
1%
February 20
2%
February 21
2%
February 22
1%
February 23
1%
February 24
1%
February 25
2%
February 26
1%
February 27
2%
February 28
2%
No strike by February 28
50%
About
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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