US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28 41%
January 2026 18%
February 1 7.7%
February 7 3.8%
$599,152 Vol.
$599,152 Vol.
January 2026
$35,090 Vol.
18%
January 2026
$35,090 Vol.
18%
February 1
$42,462 Vol.
8%
February 1
$42,462 Vol.
8%
February 2
$18,299 Vol.
3%
February 2
$18,299 Vol.
3%
February 3
$21,285 Vol.
2%
February 3
$21,285 Vol.
2%
February 4
$20,109 Vol.
2%
February 4
$20,109 Vol.
2%
February 5
$17,325 Vol.
2%
February 5
$17,325 Vol.
2%
February 6
$18,542 Vol.
3%
February 6
$18,542 Vol.
3%
February 7
$19,217 Vol.
4%
February 7
$19,217 Vol.
4%
February 8
$18,791 Vol.
2%
February 8
$18,791 Vol.
2%
February 9
$15,514 Vol.
1%
February 9
$15,514 Vol.
1%
February 10
$15,819 Vol.
1%
February 10
$15,819 Vol.
1%
February 11
$14,941 Vol.
1%
February 11
$14,941 Vol.
1%
February 12
$19,567 Vol.
1%
February 12
$19,567 Vol.
1%
February 13
$18,679 Vol.
2%
February 13
$18,679 Vol.
2%
February 14
$16,982 Vol.
2%
February 14
$16,982 Vol.
2%
February 15
$20,468 Vol.
1%
February 15
$20,468 Vol.
1%
February 16
$16,089 Vol.
1%
February 16
$16,089 Vol.
1%
February 17
$17,256 Vol.
1%
February 17
$17,256 Vol.
1%
February 18
$17,602 Vol.
1%
February 18
$17,602 Vol.
1%
February 19
$13,954 Vol.
1%
February 19
$13,954 Vol.
1%
February 20
$15,725 Vol.
1%
February 20
$15,725 Vol.
1%
February 21
$16,736 Vol.
1%
February 21
$16,736 Vol.
1%
February 22
$18,504 Vol.
1%
February 22
$18,504 Vol.
1%
February 23
$16,474 Vol.
1%
February 23
$16,474 Vol.
1%
February 24
$19,176 Vol.
2%
February 24
$19,176 Vol.
2%
February 25
$23,899 Vol.
1%
February 25
$23,899 Vol.
1%
February 26
$21,145 Vol.
1%
February 26
$21,145 Vol.
1%
February 27
$21,839 Vol.
2%
February 27
$21,839 Vol.
2%
February 28
$17,908 Vol.
3%
February 28
$17,908 Vol.
3%
No strike by February 28
$29,755 Vol.
41%
No strike by February 28
$29,755 Vol.
41%
Rules
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 27, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28 41%
January 2026 18%
February 1 7.7%
February 7 3.8%
$599,152 Vol.
$599,152 Vol.
January 2026
18%
February 1
8%
February 2
3%
February 3
2%
February 4
2%
February 5
2%
February 6
3%
February 7
4%
February 8
2%
February 9
1%
February 10
1%
February 11
1%
February 12
1%
February 13
2%
February 14
2%
February 15
1%
February 16
1%
February 17
1%
February 18
1%
February 19
1%
February 20
1%
February 21
1%
February 22
1%
February 23
1%
February 24
2%
February 25
1%
February 26
1%
February 27
2%
February 28
3%
No strike by February 28
41%
About
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.