Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

US next strikes Iran on...?

Feb 28

Mar 31

No strike by March 31 60%

Before March ET 17%

March 14 2.5%

March 7 2.0%

Polymarket
NEW

$595,063 Vol.

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, (ET).

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by March 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$595,063
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Created At
Feb 9, 2026, 11:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, (ET). If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by March 31," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

US next strikes Iran on...?

Feb 28

Mar 31

No strike by March 31 60%

Before March ET 17%

March 14 2.5%

March 7 2.0%

Polymarket
NEW

$595,063 Vol.

Before March ET

$27,153 Vol.

17%

March 1

$25,670 Vol.

1%

March 2

$20,282 Vol.

1%

March 3

$19,086 Vol.

1%

March 4

$16,551 Vol.

1%

March 5

$15,780 Vol.

1%

March 6

$19,407 Vol.

2%

March 7

$20,348 Vol.

2%

March 8

$18,486 Vol.

1%

March 9

$17,126 Vol.

1%

March 10

$15,794 Vol.

1%

March 11

$14,944 Vol.

1%

March 12

$15,576 Vol.

1%

March 13

$19,151 Vol.

1%

March 14

$23,627 Vol.

3%

March 15

$15,761 Vol.

1%

March 16

$14,515 Vol.

1%

March 17

$14,350 Vol.

1%

March 18

$14,642 Vol.

1%

March 19

$15,371 Vol.

1%

March 20

$17,525 Vol.

1%

March 21

$19,646 Vol.

1%

March 22

$16,189 Vol.

1%

March 23

$20,675 Vol.

1%

March 24

$15,692 Vol.

1%

March 25

$15,530 Vol.

1%

March 26

$14,110 Vol.

1%

March 27

$18,693 Vol.

1%

March 28

$18,076 Vol.

1%

March 29

$15,638 Vol.

1%

March 30

$20,849 Vol.

<1%

March 31

$16,601 Vol.

1%

No strike by March 31

$22,217 Vol.

60%

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Beware of external links.