March 20 16.1%
No release by March 31 15.0%
March 29 9%
March 6 8%
$10,053 Vol.
$10,053 Vol.
Released before February 15
$208 Vol.
5%
February 15
$1,232 Vol.
6%
February 16
$190 Vol.
8%
February 17
$183 Vol.
7%
February 18
$187 Vol.
7%
February 19
$183 Vol.
7%
February 20
$186 Vol.
5%
February 21
$183 Vol.
6%
February 22
$183 Vol.
7%
February 23
$183 Vol.
7%
February 24
$183 Vol.
5%
February 25
$186 Vol.
7%
February 26
$186 Vol.
7%
February 27
$183 Vol.
5%
February 28
$183 Vol.
5%
March 1
$186 Vol.
5%
March 2
$183 Vol.
6%
March 3
$186 Vol.
5%
March 4
$183 Vol.
5%
March 5
$183 Vol.
5%
March 6
$186 Vol.
8%
March 7
$186 Vol.
5%
March 8
$183 Vol.
5%
March 9
$187 Vol.
5%
March 10
$183 Vol.
6%
March 11
$188 Vol.
6%
March 12
$186 Vol.
6%
March 13
$187 Vol.
5%
March 14
$183 Vol.
5%
March 15
$187 Vol.
5%
March 16
$187 Vol.
5%
March 17
$183 Vol.
5%
March 18
$187 Vol.
5%
March 19
$187 Vol.
5%
March 20
$308 Vol.
16%
March 21
$183 Vol.
5%
March 22
$186 Vol.
5%
March 23
$186 Vol.
5%
March 24
$186 Vol.
6%
March 25
$186 Vol.
6%
March 26
$183 Vol.
8%
March 27
$183 Vol.
7%
March 28
$183 Vol.
6%
March 29
$187 Vol.
9%
March 30
$183 Vol.
5%
March 31
$183 Vol.
6%
No release by March 31
$362 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to "Released before February 15" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public before February 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "No release by March 31" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is not made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To qualify, Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Feb 9, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...March 20 16.1%
No release by March 31 15.0%
March 29 9%
March 6 8%
$10,053 Vol.
$10,053 Vol.
Released before February 15
5%
February 15
6%
February 16
8%
February 17
7%
February 18
7%
February 19
7%
February 20
5%
February 21
6%
February 22
7%
February 23
7%
February 24
5%
February 25
7%
February 26
7%
February 27
5%
February 28
5%
March 1
5%
March 2
6%
March 3
5%
March 4
5%
March 5
5%
March 6
8%
March 7
5%
March 8
5%
March 9
5%
March 10
6%
March 11
6%
March 12
6%
March 13
5%
March 14
5%
March 15
5%
March 16
5%
March 17
5%
March 18
5%
March 19
5%
March 20
16%
March 21
5%
March 22
5%
March 23
5%
March 24
6%
March 25
6%
March 26
8%
March 27
7%
March 28
6%
March 29
9%
March 30
5%
March 31
6%
No release by March 31
15%
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