Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
$1,784,328 Vol.
Dec 31, 2025
June 30, 2026
$334,537 Vol.
5%
June 30, 2026
$334,537 Vol.
5%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Created At: Sep 23, 2025, 5:16 PM ET
Volume
$1,784,328End Date
Dec 31, 2025Created At
Sep 23, 2025, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
$1,784,328 Vol.
June 30, 2026
$334,537 Vol.
5%
About
Volume
$1,784,328End Date
Dec 31, 2025Created At
Sep 23, 2025, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...
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