Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Will Hamas surrender before February?

Name: Will Hamas surrender before February?
Start: 2024-01-31T00:00:00.000Z
End: 2024-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

>99% chance

$38,651 Vol.

Jan 31, 2024

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by January 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, Hamas officially announces a surrender in its conflict with Israel. "Surrender" refers to a formal acknowledgment of defeat, entailing a cessation of all military and hostile activities against Israel, and this must be communicated through an official statement recognized by international authorities or bodies. The market will resolve to "No" if Hamas does not officially declare such a surrender by January 31, 2023. If the event of surrend er occurs before the expiry date, the market will resolve immediately. Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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