Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

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Will France recognize Palestine before September?

<1% chance

$29,496 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of France formally recognizes the State of Palestine by August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only the French government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$29,496
End Date
Aug 31, 2024
Created At
Jul 8, 2024, 3:10 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of France formally recognizes the State of Palestine by August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only the French government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Will France recognize Palestine before September?

<1% chance

$29,496 Vol.

About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of France formally recognizes the State of Palestine by August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only the French government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$29,496
End Date
Aug 31, 2024
Created At
Jul 8, 2024, 3:10 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of France formally recognizes the State of Palestine by August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only the French government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.