Market icon

U.S. nuclear test by...?

$378,589 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$378,589
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Created At
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ET

Beware of external links.

Market icon

U.S. nuclear test by...?

$378,589 Vol.

March 31, 2026

$84,493 Vol.

3%

About

Volume
$378,589
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Created At
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ET

Beware of external links.