Market icon

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Dec 31

Schoof - Netherlands PM 75%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader 7%

Lecornu - France PM 3.3%

Takaichi - Japan PM 3.0%

$3,196,854 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,196,854
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Jan 5, 2026, 3:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Beware of external links.

Market icon

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Dec 31

Schoof - Netherlands PM 75%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader 7%

Lecornu - France PM 3.3%

Takaichi - Japan PM 3.0%

$3,196,854 Vol.

Schoof - Netherlands PM

$149,160 Vol.

75%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader

$129,608 Vol.

7%

Lecornu - France PM

$117,171 Vol.

3%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$124,567 Vol.

3%

Orbán - Hungary PM

$116,286 Vol.

3%

Trump - USA President

$160,474 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$110,325 Vol.

1%

Putin - Russia President

$113,493 Vol.

1%

Macron - France President

$87,046 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$106,518 Vol.

1%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$149,570 Vol.

1%

None before 2027

$127,955 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$94,172 Vol.

1%

Petro - Colombia President

$108,920 Vol.

1%

Starmer - UK PM

$95,480 Vol.

1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$104,394 Vol.

1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$166,169 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$108,143 Vol.

<1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$103,226 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$126,078 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$127,952 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$139,037 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$111,152 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$107,279 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$102,268 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$122,342 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$88,069 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume
$3,196,854
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Jan 5, 2026, 3:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Beware of external links.