Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

Name: Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?
Start: 2025-03-15T12:00:00.000Z
End: 2025-03-15T12:00:00.000Z

<1% chance

$341,893 Vol.

Mar 15, 2025

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas between February 4, and March 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Israel and/or Hamas, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.