Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Israel ground offensive in Rafah by March 15?

Name: Israel ground offensive in Rafah by March 15?
Start: 2024-03-15T00:00:00.000Z
End: 2024-03-15T00:00:00.000Z

>99% chance

$33,693 Vol.

Mar 15, 2024

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if by March 15, 2024, 11:59 PM Palestine Standard Time (UTC +2), the New York Times or WSJ reports that Israel has initiated a ground offensive within Rafah. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Reports of small raids or special operations will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source of this market will be reporting from the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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