Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Israel and Hamas ceasefire in 2023?

Name: Israel and Hamas ceasefire in 2023?
Start: 2023-12-31T00:00:00.000Z
End: 2023-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

>99% chance

$162,833 Vol.

Dec 31, 2023

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas on or before December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media sources. An official ceasefire agreement requires public recognition by both parties. Any form of informal, unratified, or verbal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. The ceasefire must last at least 48 hours and have begun before the resolution date. For example, if the ceasefire begins on December 30, this market would resolve to "Yes" if the ceasefire continues for 48 hours.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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