Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?

Name: Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?
Start: 2025-07-31T00:00:00.000Z
End: 2025-07-31T00:00:00.000Z

<1% chance

$1,267,083 Vol.

Jul 31, 2025

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial or military ship between July 7 and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship which are shot down or don't hit a ship will not be considered for this market. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: No

Disputed

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?

<1% chance

$1,267,083 Vol.

Jul 31, 2025

About

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: No

Disputed

Final outcome: No

Will UAE strike Yemen by January 31?

<1%

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by January 31?

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

64%

Beware of external links.

Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?

Market Context