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Fed Rates
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
$42m Vol.
$5m today
$1m Liq.
145
Ends in about 1 year
57%
Kevin Hassett
Fed decision in January?
$10m Vol.
$3m today
$2m Liq.
1,369
Ends in about 2 months
77%
No change
Who will Trump announce as next Fed Chair in 2025?
$7m Vol.
$109k today
$292k Liq.
83
Ends in 18 days
90%
No announcement by December 31
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in 2025?
$5m Vol.
$75.5k today
$259k Liq.
167
1%
4.6%
Fed decision in March?
$381k Vol.
$58.4k today
$286k Liq.
418
Ends in 3 months
59%
ECB rate cut in 2025?
$257k Vol.
$45.2k Liq.
3
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$914k Vol.
$652k Liq.
12
21%
3 (75 bps)
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in 2025?
$896k Vol.
$116k Liq.
17
6%
3.9%
Fed decision in April?
$414k Vol.
$313k Liq.
Ends in 5 months
63%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
$12m Vol.
$165k Liq.
420
Who will Trump announce as Lisa Cook replacement?
$360k Vol.
$42.1k Liq.
99%
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
$484k Vol.
$27.5k Liq.
15
76%
Cut–Cut–Pause
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?
$1m Vol.
$38.0k Liq.
5
<1%
Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)
$213k Vol.
$66.5k Liq.
1
54%
Cut–Pause–Pause
Fed rate hike in 2026?
$2.0k Vol.
$20.7k Liq.
Ends in 12 months
11%
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$10.7k Vol.
$41.5k Liq.
85%
↓ 3.25%
Bank of England rate cut in 2025?
$36.6k Vol.
$10.9k Liq.
98%
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
$1.5k Vol.
$21.0k Liq.
95%
Fed Decision in June?
$1.0k Vol.
$48.0k Liq.
Ends in 6 months
43%
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
$237 Vol.
$3.6k Liq.
38%
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