2026 February 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
3rd hottest 49%
4th or lower 49%
1st hottest 47%
2nd hottest 47%
NEW
NEW
Mar 10, 2026
1st hottest
$0 Vol.
47%
1st hottest
$0 Vol.
47%
2nd hottest
$0 Vol.
47%
2nd hottest
$0 Vol.
47%
3rd hottest
$1 Vol.
49%
3rd hottest
$1 Vol.
49%
4th or lower
$0 Vol.
49%
4th or lower
$0 Vol.
49%
Rules
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 versus the data points available for all other Februaries on record.
Note: If February 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 versus the data points available for all other Februaries on record.
Note: If February 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If February 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Created At: Jan 30, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$1End Date
Mar 10, 2026Created At
Jan 30, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...2026 February 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
3rd hottest 49%
4th or lower 49%
1st hottest 47%
2nd hottest 47%
NEW
NEW
Mar 10, 2026
1st hottest
$0 Vol.
47%
2nd hottest
$0 Vol.
47%
3rd hottest
$1 Vol.
49%
4th or lower
$0 Vol.
49%
About
Volume
$1End Date
Mar 10, 2026Created At
Jan 30, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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