Dashboards

Elections
Macro
Sports
Fed Rates
Trump

Elections
Macro
Sports
Fed Rates
Trump

Macro dashboard

US recession by end of 2026?

26% chance

Economy

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

33%

chance

Fed rate hike in 2026?

11%

chance

US bank failure by March 31?

27%

chance

Key Elections

Apr

Hungary

Prime Minister

51%
Péter Magyar
47%
Viktor Orbán
<1%
László Toroczkai
<1%
Klára Dobrev

Feb

Portugal

Presidential

97%
António José Seguro (IND)
3%
André Ventura (CH)
<1%
João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)
<1%
Rui Moreira (IND)

Geopolitics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

15%

chance

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

52%

chance

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

19%

chance

Macro dashboard

US recession by end of 2026?

26% chance

Economy

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

33%

chance

Fed rate hike in 2026?

11%

chance

US bank failure by March 31?

27%

chance

Key Elections

Apr

Hungary

Prime Minister

51%
Péter Magyar
47%
Viktor Orbán
<1%
László Toroczkai
<1%
Klára Dobrev

Feb

Portugal

Presidential

97%
António José Seguro (IND)
3%
André Ventura (CH)
<1%
João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)
<1%
Rui Moreira (IND)

Geopolitics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

15%

chance

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

52%

chance

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

19%

chance