Market icon

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Dec 31

Kristi Noem 39.9%

Pam Bondi 17.3%

None before 2027 9.8%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer 5.8%

$1,582,441 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.

If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$1,582,441
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Dec 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Beware of external links.

Market icon

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Dec 31

Kristi Noem 39.9%

Pam Bondi 17.3%

None before 2027 9.8%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer 5.8%

$1,582,441 Vol.

Kristi Noem

$174,796 Vol.

40%

Pam Bondi

$275,311 Vol.

17%

None before 2027

$92,638 Vol.

10%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

$43,663 Vol.

6%

Stephen Miran

$21,042 Vol.

6%

Pete Hegseth

$51,463 Vol.

5%

Tulsi Gabbard

$23,640 Vol.

3%

Marco Rubio

$76,505 Vol.

2%

Sean Duffy

$45,875 Vol.

2%

Chris Wright

$17,818 Vol.

1%

John Ratcliffe

$99,877 Vol.

1%

Jamieson Greer

$53,310 Vol.

1%

Susie Wiles

$47,932 Vol.

1%

Kelly Loeffler

$52,246 Vol.

1%

Russell T. Vought

$43,817 Vol.

1%

Scott Turner

$59,935 Vol.

1%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$17,120 Vol.

1%

Linda McMahon

$13,303 Vol.

1%

Scott Bessent

$26,033 Vol.

1%

Mike Waltz

$34,913 Vol.

1%

Brooke Rollins

$12,966 Vol.

1%

Howard Lutnick

$42,833 Vol.

1%

Doug Burgum

$78,798 Vol.

1%

Doug Collins

$75,407 Vol.

1%

Lee Zeldin

$35,365 Vol.

1%

J.D. Vance

$65,835 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume
$1,582,441
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Dec 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Beware of external links.