Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Open Source Intel

asked

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

Name: Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?
Start: 2024-12-09T16:27:32.503949Z
End: 2025-02-28T12:00:00Z

<1% chance

$188,029 Vol.

Feb 28, 2025

Rules

In May 2018, the US State Department added HTS to the Nusrah Front's existing December 2012 designation as a foreign terrorist organization (see: https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/). This market will resolve to "Yes " if the U.S. removes Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from it's list of designated foreign terrorist organizations by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Open Source Intel

asked

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

<1% chance

$188,029 Vol.

Feb 28, 2025

About

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Beware of external links.

Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?

Market Context