Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

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Will Israel halt Rafah operation in May?

>99% chance

$21,310 Vol.

Rules

On May 24, 2024, the ICJ ordered Israel to halt its military assault on the city of Rafah, in the Gaza strip.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel announces that they are halting offensive ground operations in Rafah by May 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by Israel that they are halting offensive ground operations will suffice for a “Yes” resolution even if the operation continues in practice.
Volume
$21,310
End Date
May 31, 2024
Created At
May 24, 2024, 5:29 PM ET
On May 24, 2024, the ICJ ordered Israel to halt its military assault on the city of Rafah, in the Gaza strip. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel announces that they are halting offensive ground operations in Rafah by May 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by Israel that they are halting offensive ground operations will suffice for a “Yes” resolution even if the operation continues in practice.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Will Israel halt Rafah operation in May?

>99% chance

$21,310 Vol.

About

On May 24, 2024, the ICJ ordered Israel to halt its military assault on the city of Rafah, in the Gaza strip.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel announces that they are halting offensive ground operations in Rafah by May 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by Israel that they are halting offensive ground operations will suffice for a “Yes” resolution even if the operation continues in practice.
Volume
$21,310
End Date
May 31, 2024
Created At
May 24, 2024, 5:29 PM ET
On May 24, 2024, the ICJ ordered Israel to halt its military assault on the city of Rafah, in the Gaza strip. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel announces that they are halting offensive ground operations in Rafah by May 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by Israel that they are halting offensive ground operations will suffice for a “Yes” resolution even if the operation continues in practice.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.