Name: Who will win the Orderly trading competition?
Start: 2025-11-13T20:25:50.703345Z
End: 2026-01-01T05:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to the listed participant with the highest PnL at the end of the Orderly trading competition starting on November 14, 2025.

The resolution source will be the Orderly Heavyweight Leaderboard on https://app.orderly.network/campaigns.

If two or more participants are tied for the highest PnL at the time of resolution, the market will resolve to the participant whose display name appears first in alphabetical order on the official Orderly Heavyweight Leaderboard.

If the competition is not completed or the official leaderboard is unavailable, the market will remain open until reliable data is published by Orderly. If no such data becomes available by December 31, 2025 ET, the market will resolve to “Other".

Taiki Maeda

WOLF

Salsa Tekila

Ponzi Trader

Gold Mansacks

Satsdart

Route2FI

Awawat

Who will win the Orderly trading competition?

This market will resolve to the listed participant with the highest PnL at the end of the Defi App trading competition starting on November 10, 2025.

The resolution source will be the Defi App Leaderboard on https://app.defi.app/contest.

If two or more participants are tied for the highest PnL at the time of resolution, the market will resolve to the participant whose display name appears first in alphabetical order on the official Defi App leaderboard.

If the competition is not completed or the official leaderboard is unavailable, the market will remain open until reliable data is published by Defi App. If no such data becomes available by January 31, 2026 ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”

Note: The official competition includes a large number of participants, however this market will resolve solely based on the listed group of KOL participants. Traders who are not eligible KOLs will not be considered. An eligible KOL will be considered to have won if they are the top trader out of eligible KOLs, regardless of if one of the non-KOL participants finishes ahead of them.

Will TurkXBT win the Defi App trading competition?

This market will resolve according to the Human trader with the highest Total PnL at the end of the Aster Human vs AI trading competition. The resolution source will be the Human leaderboard on https://www.asterdex.com/en/campaigns/human-vs-ai, viewable under the Human tab.

If two or more participants are tied for the highest Total PnL at the time of resolution, the market will resolve to the participant whose display name appears first in the ordering used on the official Aster Human leaderboard.

If the competition is not completed or the official leaderboard is unavailable, the market will remain open until reliable data is published by Aster. If no such data becomes available by December 31, 2025 ET, the market will resolve to “Other”.

Will 熬鹰 win the Aster trading competition?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the League of Legends Pro League (LPL) 2026 season.

If the 2026 LPL season is postponed after December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared in this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the LPL league organizers; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy,  Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Hive x Betmoar Genesis Cup, which is a trading competition scheduled to end December 16, 2025.

If the Genesis Cup is postponed after January 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared by January 31, 2026 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If multiple competitors are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the competitor whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Betmoar (see: https://www.betmoar.fun/contest/hive); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will GenesisCupChampion win the Genesis Cup?

This polymarket will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 Masters Tournament.

If this player is eliminated from contention for The Masters based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by The Masters official tournament rules.

If no winner is announced by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA TOUR website and The Masters website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Sergio Garcia win the 2026 Masters tournament?

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

This market will resolve according to the listed entity which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1500+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1500 Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None by June 30".

If the first model to reach a 1500+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the League of Legends Champions Korea (LCK) 2026 season playoffs.

If the 2026 LCK season is postponed after December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared in this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Riot Games (https://lolesports.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship, currently scheduled for October 13, 2025, to February 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If the listed player is eliminated from the championship under the tournament's official rules, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Chess.com, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used in case of discrepancies.

If the winner is not announced by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?

This market will resolve to the company which owns the model that has the top LiveBench “coding average” score, as based off the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed modeI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.


Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Constructors’ Championship for the 2026 F1 season. 

This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.

In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.”

If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season.

This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.

If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.

If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.

Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025 tournament.

If this tournament is postponed after December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from HLTV (https://www.hltv.org/events/8042/starladder-budapest-major-2025) and Liquipedia (https://liquipedia.net/counterstrike/StarLadder/2025/Major).

Will Vitality win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?

This market will resolve according to the team that finishes first in the league phase of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. 

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish first in the league phase (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA’s official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.

The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Arsenal finish first in UCL league phase?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025-2026 Big 10 Men's Basketball Regular Season Championship.

If two or more teams tie for the regular season championship, this market will resolve according to the team which receives a higher seed for the 2026 Big 10 Men's Basketball conference tournament.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a team to win the 2025-2026 Big 10 Men's Basketball Regular Season Championship based on the rules of the Big 10 or NCAA (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No" for that team.

If for any reason no 2025-2026 Big 10 Men's Basketball regular season champion is declared by April 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Official resolution will be based on the Big 10's official Men's Basketball results, as published on bigten.org or NCAA.com, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Michigan State win the 2025-2026 Big 10 Men's Basketball regular season championship?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025-2026 Big 12 Men's Basketball Regular Season Championship.

If two or more teams tie for the regular season championship, this market will resolve according to the team which receives a higher seed for the 2026 Big 12 Men's Basketball conference tournament.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a team to win the 2025-2026 Big 12 Men's Basketball Regular Season Championship based on the rules of the Big 12 or NCAA (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No" for that team.

If for any reason no 2025-2026 Big 12 Men's Basketball regular season champion is declared by April 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Official resolution will be based on the Big 12’s official Men's Basketball results, as published on big12sports.com or NCAA.com, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will BYU win the 2025-2026 Big 12 Men's Basketball regular season championship?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.

If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.

Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

The winners of the Steam Awards for 2025 will be chosen by community vote. Results will be announced on January 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the game which wins Labor of Love in the 2025 Steam Awards.

If for any reason no winner is declared by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the game whose name comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Steam, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Baldur's Gate 3 win Labor of Love at the 2025 Steam Awards?

This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?

The HLTV awards are scheduled to be held on January 10, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the Team of the Year award. 

If for any reason no winner is declared by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary source of resolution for this market will be official information from HLTV; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Vitality win the HLTV Team of the Year award?

This market will resolve according to the listed golfer who wins the 2025 PGA Tour Player of the Year Award.

If the award is not announced by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the PGA Tour (https://www.pgatour.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Who will win the Orderly trading competition?

Taiki Maeda
$16,776 Vol.
92%
0123456789
%

Gold Mansacks
$15,939 Vol.
6%
0123456789
%

Route2FI
$18,311 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Salsa Tekila
$16,857 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Satsdart
$5,933 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Awawat
$8,738 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

WOLF
$11,975 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Ponzi Trader
$6,317 Vol.
<1%

Market Context

Who will win the Orderly trading competition?

Rules

Who will win the Orderly trading competition?

Market Context

Who will win the Orderly trading competition?

About

Related

Who will win the Orderly trading competition?

Taiki Maeda$16,776 Vol.92%0123456789%buy Yes94¢buy No11¢

Gold Mansacks$15,939 Vol.6%0123456789%buy Yes8¢buy No97¢

Route2FI$18,311 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes1.7¢buy No99.0¢

Salsa Tekila$16,857 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes0.9¢buy No99.6¢

Satsdart$5,933 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes0.9¢buy No99.6¢

Awawat$8,738 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes0.7¢buy No99.5¢

WOLF$11,975 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes0.7¢buy No99.7¢

Ponzi Trader$6,317 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.5¢buy No99.7¢

Market Context

Who will win the Orderly trading competition?

Rules

Who will win the Orderly trading competition?

Market Context

Who will win the Orderly trading competition?

About

Related

Taiki Maeda
$16,776 Vol.
92%
0123456789
%

Gold Mansacks
$15,939 Vol.
6%
0123456789
%

Route2FI
$18,311 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Salsa Tekila
$16,857 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Satsdart
$5,933 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Awawat
$8,738 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

WOLF
$11,975 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

Ponzi Trader
$6,317 Vol.
<1%