Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?
$902,985 Vol.
None in 2025 95%
Kristi Noem 2.6%
Stephen Miran 2.3%
Pete Hegseth 1.4%
None in 2025
$50,446 Vol.
95%
None in 2025
$50,446 Vol.
95%
Kristi Noem
$44,259 Vol.
3%
Kristi Noem
$44,259 Vol.
3%
Stephen Miran
$65,981 Vol.
2%
Stephen Miran
$65,981 Vol.
2%
Pete Hegseth
$51,666 Vol.
1%
Pete Hegseth
$51,666 Vol.
1%
Pam Bondi
$23,163 Vol.
<1%
Pam Bondi
$23,163 Vol.
<1%
Brooke Rollins
$24,568 Vol.
<1%
Brooke Rollins
$24,568 Vol.
<1%
Scott Turner
$14,453 Vol.
<1%
Scott Turner
$14,453 Vol.
<1%
Mike Waltz
$17,356 Vol.
<1%
Mike Waltz
$17,356 Vol.
<1%
J.D. Vance
$321,435 Vol.
<1%
J.D. Vance
$321,435 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$18,788 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$18,788 Vol.
<1%
Scott Bessent
$22,643 Vol.
<1%
Scott Bessent
$22,643 Vol.
<1%
Doug Burgum
$11,443 Vol.
<1%
Doug Burgum
$11,443 Vol.
<1%
Howard Lutnick
$20,272 Vol.
<1%
Howard Lutnick
$20,272 Vol.
<1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$14,397 Vol.
<1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$14,397 Vol.
<1%
Linda McMahon
$11,768 Vol.
<1%
Linda McMahon
$11,768 Vol.
<1%
Doug Collins
$18,192 Vol.
<1%
Doug Collins
$18,192 Vol.
<1%
Lee Zeldin
$16,221 Vol.
<1%
Lee Zeldin
$16,221 Vol.
<1%
Susie Wiles
$20,038 Vol.
<1%
Susie Wiles
$20,038 Vol.
<1%
Tulsi Gabbard
$25,463 Vol.
<1%
Tulsi Gabbard
$25,463 Vol.
<1%
Russell T. Vought
$14,172 Vol.
<1%
Russell T. Vought
$14,172 Vol.
<1%
John Ratcliffe
$12,722 Vol.
<1%
John Ratcliffe
$12,722 Vol.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$14,501 Vol.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$14,501 Vol.
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$21,149 Vol.
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$21,149 Vol.
<1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$18,334 Vol.
<1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$18,334 Vol.
<1%
Sean Duffy
$14,721 Vol.
<1%
Sean Duffy
$14,721 Vol.
<1%
Chris Wright
$14,832 Vol.
<1%
Chris Wright
$14,832 Vol.
<1%
Rules
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position (e.g. Mike Waltz) will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Created At: Jul 21, 2025, 10:43 PM UTC
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...$902,985 Vol.
Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?
None in 2025 95%
Kristi Noem 2.6%
Stephen Miran 2.3%
Pete Hegseth 1.4%
None in 2025
95%
Kristi Noem
3%
Stephen Miran
2%
Pete Hegseth
1%
Pam Bondi
<1%
Brooke Rollins
<1%
Scott Turner
<1%
Mike Waltz
<1%
J.D. Vance
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Scott Bessent
<1%
Doug Burgum
<1%
Howard Lutnick
<1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
<1%
Linda McMahon
<1%
Doug Collins
<1%
Lee Zeldin
<1%
Susie Wiles
<1%
Tulsi Gabbard
<1%
Russell T. Vought
<1%
John Ratcliffe
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
<1%
Sean Duffy
<1%
Chris Wright
<1%
About
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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