Name: What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)
Start: 2025-04-18T22:54:38.798691Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve based on the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) as of the final market close price in 2025.

The resolution source will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).

This market will resolve based on the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) as of the final market close price in 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).

<$3200

$3200-$3300

$3300-$3400

$3400-$3500

$3500-$3600

$3600-$3700

$3700-$3800

$3800-$3900

$3900-$4000

>$4000

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)

Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is $3,200.00 per troy ounce or greater as of the final market close price in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).

Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?

This market will resolve to "Gold" if, between October 8, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) reaches or exceeds $5,000.00 per troy ounce during regular trading hours before Ethereum (ETH) reaches or exceeds that same price according to the final "Close" price of all Binance 1 minute candles for ETH/USDT.

This market will resolve to "ETH" if, within that same timeframe, Ethereum (ETH) reaches or exceeds $5,000.00 according to the final "Close" price of all Binance 1 minute candles for ETH/USDT before the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) reaches or exceeds that same price per troy ounce during regular trading hours.

If neither Gold nor Ethereum reach $5,000.00 within this market's timeframe, or if they reach that price at the exact same moment, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for Gold prices will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).

The resolution source Ethereum prices is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.

Note: This market's resolution is based specifically on the listed resolution sources, not according to other sources or spot markets.

First to 5k: Gold or ETH?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Google (GOOGL) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Google (GOOGL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Google (GOOGL) close at $310–325 in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’25” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized.

If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.

Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Apple (AAPL) close at $280–285 in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $460–480 in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Netflix (NFLX) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Netflix (NFLX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$95 in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the S&P 500 achieves a daily high price greater than 6,920.34 during market hours by December 31, 2025, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the S&P 500's highest intraday high during the specified timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be figures from Yahoo Finance, specifically the finalized  "High" numbers listed under historical data (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/).

S&P 500 all time high by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the NVIDIA (NVDA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $175–180 in 2025?

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for some time in January, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Tesla (TSLA) on the final trading day of 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Tesla (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $450–475 in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if DOGE or Elon Musk confirm that gold is missing from Fort Knox between March 10, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Only definitive statements which are based on audit or investigation of Fort Knox will count. 

If an audit by DOGE or Elon Musk confirms that there is no gold missing from Fort Knox, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency.

Will DOGE confirm Gold missing from Fort Knox?

This market will resolve to “Yes” immediately if all Coinbase 1 minute candles for USDT-USD for any 24 hour period are below 98 cents, for candles between 01 Jan '25 00:00 and 31 Dec '25 23:59 in the ET timezone. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Below 98 cents means all candles in the period have a final “High” price below 0.98000 (i.e. 0.97999 or lower). A 24h period of USDT below 98 cents that starts on the last day in 2025 will count.

The resolution source for this market is https://www.coinbase.com/, specifically the USDT-USD “High” prices currently available at https://www.coinbase.com/advanced-trade/spot/USDT-USD with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. To see the “High” prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value after “H” at the top of the chart.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Coinbase USDT-USD. If Coinbase stops having the necessary USDT information to resolve this market, a consensus of credible sources for whether USDT was below 98 cents for 24h+ may be used to resolve this market.

USDT depeg in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDT marketcap is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for USDT, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31?

This market will resolve to the lower price in the title if Bitcoin’s price dips to that level or below before it hits the higher title price between August 5, 2025 at 10:30 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It will resolve to the higher price in the title if Bitcoin’s price first reaches that level or above before it dips to the lower title price during the same period.

If neither price level is reached within the market timeframe, the market will resolve 50–50.

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" and "Low" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between February 24 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).


Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of XRP in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating XRP does not count as holding XRP reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national XRP reserve in 2025?

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the value of customs duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/)

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. 

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.

Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?

This market will resolve to the lower price in the title if Bitcoin’s price dips to that level or below before it hits the higher title price between November 18, 2025 at 1:30 PM ET and December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. It will resolve to the higher price in the title if Bitcoin’s price first reaches that level or above before it dips to the lower title price during the same period.

If neither price level is reached within the market timeframe, the market will resolve 50–50.

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" and "Low" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.3% by March 31?

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the monetary policy rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Colombia's December 2025 meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Central Bank of Colombia after its December 19, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar: https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos

This market may resolve as soon as the Central Bank of Colombia's statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the December meeting?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows an increase greater than that of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly greater than that of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)

<$3200
$262,647 Vol.
1%

$3200-$3300
$300,200 Vol.
<1%
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$3300-$3400
$233,108 Vol.
<1%

$3400-$3500
$188,319 Vol.
<1%
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$3500-$3600
$188,488 Vol.
<1%

$3600-$3700
$245,371 Vol.
<1%
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$3700-$3800
$196,584 Vol.
1%
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$3800-$3900
$198,542 Vol.
1%
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$3900-$4000
$205,937 Vol.
3%
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>$4000
$955,836 Vol.
95%
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%

Market Context

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)

Rules

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)

Market Context

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)

About

Related

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)

<$3200$262,647 Vol.1%buy Yes0.6¢buy No99.6¢

$3200-$3300$300,200 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.3¢buy No99.9¢

$3300-$3400$233,108 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.3¢buy No99.9¢

$3400-$3500$188,319 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.3¢buy No99.9¢

$3500-$3600$188,488 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.2¢buy No99.9¢

$3600-$3700$245,371 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.3¢buy No99.9¢

$3700-$3800$196,584 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes0.6¢buy No99.6¢

$3800-$3900$198,542 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes1.0¢buy No99.4¢

$3900-$4000$205,937 Vol.3%0123456789%buy Yes3.6¢buy No97.0¢

>$4000$955,836 Vol.95%0123456789%buy Yes96¢buy No6¢

Market Context

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)

Rules

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)

Market Context

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)

About

Related

<$3200
$262,647 Vol.
1%

$3200-$3300
$300,200 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

$3300-$3400
$233,108 Vol.
<1%

$3400-$3500
$188,319 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

$3500-$3600
$188,488 Vol.
<1%

$3600-$3700
$245,371 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

$3700-$3800
$196,584 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

$3800-$3900
$198,542 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

$3900-$4000
$205,937 Vol.
3%
0123456789
%

>$4000
$955,836 Vol.
95%
0123456789
%